Senate A&R now amending a bill to apparently again make the highly ineffective and expensive film tax credit refundable at a cost of $75 million a year, giving away a massive amount of money on an idea that was never given a public hearing or introduced as a bill. #sewage
In addition, Kentucky will be required to refund federal aid equal to the cost of all tax cuts and tax breaks like the film tax credit because of the new provisions of the American Rescue Plan. A double hit to our budget. #kyga21
Here's a comprehensive study of state film tax credits. They are a race to the bottom among states that don't come close to paying for themselves and reward companies for what they would've done anyway. In-state jobs are part-time and temporary. cbpp.org/research/state…
"Refundable" tax credits are like grants. Bringing back its refundability means Kentucky will pay an extraordinary *30%-35%* of the costs of producing television shows and movies in the state--diverting those dollars from schools, infrastructure, health and other services.
While Kentucky is opening up its film tax credit again, other states are wisely shutting theirs down because of their lack of effectiveness. 13 states have eliminated their film tax credits in the last 10 years, and others have scaled them back. cnbc.com/2020/01/31/hug…
Issue explained more fully here: kypolicy.org/kentucky-shoul…
Also added to this bill is the expansion of existing tax break for developers from a cost of $5 million a year to *$100 million.* And there's a special carveout of $30 million of that for an unnamed but very specifically defined project.
Another refundable credit, this program will in essence provide grants of 20%-30% of developers' cost in reinvesting in a property--an enormously big handout to developers.
This idea also was not introduced in a bill or considered in a committee hearing.

Between it and the film tax break, the cost is now more than $175 million a year.

But the budget the legislature will soon pass doesn't even fund school textbooks, at $11 million a year.
A Senate committee also just passed HB 413, which delays an automatic, small unemployment tax increase at a cost of approximately $200 million a year to the underfunded unemployment fund. It will just mean higher costs later, as we describe here: kypolicy.org/hb-413-provide…
That tax cut may also force KY to repay an equivalent amount of aid funds to the federal government. Though Treasury guidance is still forthcoming, the American Rescue Plan includes in its prohibition any change in law that "delays the imposition of any tax or tax increase."
Added to the list is a new one inserted this morning into HB 372--an income tax credit of up to $5K/remote worker that is unavailable for people below poverty & is biggest for those making $100k+, plus a property tax credit that is biggest for those with the biggest houses.
How many people live in Kentucky now and work remotely for an out-of-state employer? Those people would get an income tax break of up to $5,000 + what they pay in state property taxes. A substantial cost.
Let's say you're 1 of the 30K people who live in northern KY & work in Cincinnati. You've been doing your job from home since the pandemic. You could keep doing so (the bill doesn't even specify minimum hours) & get a tax credit of $5K + the amount you pay in state property tax.

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More from @jbaileyky

13 Mar
The new budget would bar the governor from spending the $2.4 billion to the state as well as the $185 million for capital projects that support work, education and health (i.e. remote work, telehealth) without the General Assembly's authorization.
Similar language was not included in last year's budget which was enacted after the CARES Act passed. The governor used the Coronavirus Relief Fund from that act throughout the rest of the year to shore up the budget, address the public health crisis, and provide aid.
Here's what the $2.4 billion can be used for: Image
Read 8 tweets
30 Apr 20
NEW interim forecast says state revenues will collapse 18.2%-23.7% this quarter--creating a shortfall of $319- $496 million--and then 10.5%-17.2% the next two quarters of the new fisc year.

Kentucky needs Congress to step in with *much more* in fiscal relief. #statecovidrelief
Corporate taxes projected will fall especially--from 68%-79% this quarter. Sales taxes will fall 18%-20% and individual income taxes 5%-13%. The lottery will drop 32%, property tax 14%, coal severance 46% and other 28%. All massive declines.
Road Fund receipts will also crater, falling 36.8%-55.2% in April-June compared to the prior year. The gas tax will fall 33.6%-52.1% and the usage tax (based on car sales) will fall 52.5%-72.1%. That creates a Road Fund shortfall between $116 million and $195 million this year.
Read 7 tweets
14 Jul 19
As we approach a possible special session on pensions and quasi-governmental organizations, let's reflect on how we got here--and specifically the assumption changes the KRS board made in 2017. <thread>
Assumptions are long term & should apply to a ~30 year period. Given that, the pre-2017 assumptions were not way out of line. For KERS NH, the investment assumption was 6.75% (just lowered from 7.5%), nearly the lowest in US at the time & below what plan has earned historically.
The payroll growth assumption of 4% reflected what had happened historically. It’s true that we didn’t hit 4% in the years after the Great Recession—a recession that caused major budget cuts that reduced employment.
Read 11 tweets
13 Dec 18
False claims of a crisis & even insolvency for the pension plans because of today's Supreme Court ruling. Let's be clear: those saying so have no analysis to back them up. (1/6)
First of all, KY's retirements plans have $38 billion in assets in total (money that is invested). Those funds have built up through past contributions as well as investment returns. That's an amount equal to 18% of KY's entire economy. Not money that's about to run out. (2/6)
Second, employers & employees make contributions every year, and the $38 billion earns investment returns. We returned to responsible funding in '14 for KERS/SPRS & '17 for TRS. Plans will improve through steady funding, & no one is proposing we underfund again. (3/6)
Read 7 tweets

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