Thread by @thisisbullish

1/8 Two #Bitcoin moves have signalled PERFECT local top signals, but it's argued between on-chain data analysts what these should be labelled.
'It's internal.' – @glassnode vs. 'It's @Gemini inflow.' – @crypto_quant (concerning) vs. @OKEx(?) … Who's right?! Lets get into it.👇

2/8 #Bitcoin 1st hit $58K past 30d it retraced, coinciding with a ~27K #BTC move. Same thing happened early this morning – into exactly the same wallet. With such a single large amount of coins the labelling of the wallet is key to what to expect next in the market, short-term.

3/8 Generally, if the transaction is an inflow to an exchange and/or some moved at least part into HOT/MARKET wallet: likely BEARISH.

If it's internal COLD-wallet move or OTC wallet: likely neutral/BULLISH

4/8 I've labelled wallets involved based on basic characteristics, not labels:

Initial move: bc1qss5e… (~18-27K #BTC each time)
Hot/Market wallet: bc1quq29… (~7-8K #BTC each time)
Cold wallet: 38UmuUqP… (~10K #BTC)
Whale Wallet: 3Kzh9qAq… (~10K #BTC)

5/8 @ki_young_ju has presented the most compelling evidence that the Hot/Market wallet 'bc1quq29…' is associated with part of the move to @gemini inflow + internal move is also more likely to start with 'bc1' or '1' addr – rejecting @glassnode arg.

https://twitter.com/ki_young_ju/status/1371382177800187905?s=20

6/8 However, BIG note is that prev 27K #BTC move (+others moves) have association with 'The OKEx Whale' (verified: 3Kzh9qAqVWQhEsfQz7zEQL1EuSx5tyNLNS). Anything to do with this addr is likely short-term bearish, but also contradicts the wholly @gemini narrative at all.

7/8 More data/evidence from @glassnode @whale_alerts, @bitinfocharts and others is welcome. In the meantime I gain value from moves based on SIZE and destination wallet CHARACTER (hot/cold/OTC/etc wallet); labelling currently reliable as anecdotal evidence is to scientific study.

8/8 Conclusion: Deriv short squeeze Sat (see spot vs. deriv data on @OKEx + @HuobiGlobal). Sun, inflows + India FUD coinciding with over-lev-long liquidations.
Result: #BTC on-chain moves part of whale play and reliable signal for local top (until they aren't).

Good game. 👏

Note: Aside from specific exchange label, the #BTC -> hot wallet was not spent/sold in bulk (see on-chain). This gives weight to whole move being more likely for triggering algo bots in an over-leveraged long liquidation event or very least just sent to replenish exchange supply.