For those of you looking at weekly #PEPP purchase numbers, let me give you a brief explainer how to read our numbers. For PEPP, there are three types of publications: weekly, monthly and bimonthly. #NerdyThread #ECBWatchers #Servicetweet @ecb 1/11 ecb.europa.eu/mopo/implement…
On Mondays at 15:45 CET, we publish the Eurosystem’s PEPP holdings (at amortised cost), as of the previous Friday, on our website: 2/11
By taking the difference to the previous week, one obtains the *net* purchases for the previous trading week. This is the difference between gross purchases *settled* in that week (i.e. traded two trading days earlier, so from THU to WED) and redemptions (from MON to FRI). 3/11
It may be misleading to infer from the weekly data how large monthly net purchases are likely to be. One reason is the varying number of trading days across months, which implies that identical monthly volumes may go along with different weekly volumes. 4/11
A second reason is the volume of redemptions. Maturing holdings are normally reinvested in the same month but not necessarily in the same week, especially if they are large. High redemptions early in the month tend to go along with higher *net* purchases towards the end. 5/11
On Tuesdays at 15:00 CET, we publish the Eurosystem’s consolidated financial statement. In the commentary we report *gross* purchases & redemptions of the previous trading week for each programme. The difference corresponds to the net purchases above: 6/11 ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/wfs/h…
At the beginning of each month, typically on the first Monday, we publish monthly net purchases for the previous month as well as the cumulative net purchases since the beginning of the programme: 7/11
Every two months, we publish the detailed breakdown of our asset purchases across asset classes for the previous two months (including quarter-end amortisation adjustments and redemptions of coupon strips as reported below): 8/11
… and across member states and supranationals, including weighted average maturities in comparison with those of the eligible universe for public sector securities: 9/11
… and across primary and secondary market purchases for the private sector purchase programmes: 10/11
Conclusion: Do not read too much into weekly purchase data under the PEPP. An extrapolation from weekly data to overall monthly data may lead to misleading conclusions about our monthly purchase behaviour. 11/11

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More from @Isabel_Schnabel

15 Nov 20
Large-scale government & central bank interventions in the COVID-19 crisis have revived the debate on the alleged "zombification" of the economy if unviable firms are kept alive. In our recent VoxEU column with @laeven_luc & @gschepen, we survey the existing literature. 1/14
Why would banks lend to "zombie firms"? On the dark side, low-capitalised banks may engage in the "evergreening" of loans to avoid loss recognition. On the bright side, banks may lend to preserve valuable relationships, which can also avoid disruptions of supply chains. 2/14
A "zombification" of the economy can lead to a drop in productivity through credit misallocation: either mechanically by reducing aggregate productivity, or through a crowding-out effect when "zombie lending" tightens the credit constraints of high-productivity firms. 3/14
Read 14 tweets
20 Sep 20
On Friday, I gave a speech at Deutscher @juristentag about the distributional effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the danger of “unequal scars”. My goal was to add a European dimension to the debate. Here is my usual Twitter summary, including some of the charts. 1/11
The pandemic is a global shock that hit all euro area countries almost simultaneously. But it has become increasingly clear that the pandemic has very different impacts on different countries, as can be seen from the @EU_Commission’s forecast of economic growth. 2/11
There is a negative correlation between the projected fall in GDP for 2020 and (a) the extent of government-imposed restrictions, measured by the Oxford Stringency Index, and (b) the dependency on tourism. 3/11
Read 11 tweets
26 Aug 20
Today I gave a speech on the @ecb’s negative interest rate policy (NIRP) at the @EEANews Annual Congress in a panel with @helene_rey, Tobias #Adrian & Rafael #Repullo. In the speech, I could draw on fantastic ECB research, featuring @AngelaMaddaloni , @fheider & many others. 1/6
The NIRP helped to shift the perceived lower bound on interest rates into negative territory, supported by forward guidance that left the door open for further rate cuts. The zero lower bound was transformed into an effective lower bound below zero. 2/6
NIRP contributed to shifting € area sovereign yields down across the maturity spectrum. Due to a “hot potato effect”, NIRP compresses the term premium, reinforces the effects of asset purchases & supports bank lending. All these effects have improved monetary transmission. 3/6
Read 6 tweets
29 Jun 20
This thread is for those of you who don’t find the time to read my #PetersbergSpeech in full. Link to English translation (including slides): ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date…. Link to original German version: ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date…. Op-ed @welt (in German): welt.de/wirtschaft/art…. 1/11
Main message: Without the #PEPP and our other measures, we would now presumably be in the midst of a severe financial crisis. The measures taken by the ECB are (1) necessary, (2) suitable and (3) proportionate to ensure price stability in the euro area. 2/11
Important clarification: This speech is not about #PSPP, subject to a court case @BVerfG. It is about the measures taken in response to the pandemic, designed specifically for the pandemic & containing own safeguards to protect fundamental principles of the currency union. 3/11
Read 11 tweets
25 Jun 20
Yesterday we decided to create a Eurosystem repo facility to provide liquidity in € to central banks outside the euro area: EUREP = Eurosystem repo facility for central banks. This is a precautionary measure to alleviate potential € funding difficulties due to the pandemic. 1/5
Repo lines protect and support monetary transmission in times of market distress, e.g. by preventing fire sales of €-denominated assets by banks in need of € liquidity. Importantly, such facilities have a stabilising effect even if they are not used. 2/5
EUREP complements existing bilateral swap/repo lines, e.g. in the swap line network (with the Fed, Bank of England, Bank of Canada, Bank of Japan, Swiss National Bank), and new swap lines to the Croatian & Bulgarian central banks or repo line to the Romanian central bank. 3/5
Read 5 tweets
27 May 20
In my interview with @MAmdorsky @FT, I talk about monetary policy @ecb, the economic outlook, the European recovery fund and the longer-term consequences of the crisis. The full transcript of the interview can be found here: ecb.europa.eu/press/inter/da… 1/7
We will not adjust our monetary policy measures in response to the GCC ruling & will continue to act in line with our mandate. We continuously assess the pros & cons of our measures. Side effects of monetary policy & communication will also be part of our strategy review. 2/7
A solution will be found that will allow the @bundesbank to continue to participate in our asset purchase programmes. If the @ecb can constructively support that process, we will do so. 3/7
Read 7 tweets

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