The Integrated Review has been published. The main headlines here. At its heart is a declaration that the post-WW2 international rules based system is crumbling, and no longer strong enough for the UK to rely on. We will have to do more to defend democracy ourselves, it says.
It identifies China as the biggest challenge in the difficult new world, but not as an enemy but “a competitor”. The last decade’s twin track approach of trade engagement with security wariness at the same time will continue, albeit a bit more muscular.
Also because of the crumbling world order, the UK is rebuilding its nuclear arsenal after decades of reduction - taking it back up to 260 war heads from 180 (precise numbers never stated for security).
Aid spending will one day return to 0.7% of GNI, but crucially no date given for this, just “when the fiscal situation allows”. As the whole document is aimed at the world in 2030, perhaps that’s the final backstop date for it.
Terrorism hasn’t gone away as a threat either. The international threat will increase as countries in the Middle East and Africa fail. By 2030, it’s “likely” a terror group - perhaps state-sponsored - will have pulled off a Chemical, Biological, Radiological or Nuclear attack.
How do we deter rogue states from trying to sponsor mass destruction attacks by terror groups? A major reversal of decades of policy here - we threaten to nuke them.
What of Russia? Its named as "the most acute direct threat to the UK" because of its hybrid warfare to undermine the West. And its activities to destabilise European states predicted to increase.
PM asked directly in the Commons if there will be troop cuts? He totally ducks. 10,000 expected to be chopped from the Army alone to balance MoD books. No mention of that in the IR, just this: "Our land force will undergo its most comprehensive modernisation for two decades".
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The latest from inside Government on the new vaccine delay: the problem is with AstraZeneca and its international manufacturing and supply chain, rather than it's UK factories. I'm told its the same issues that are affecting the EU’s supply and roll out (1).
AZ is not alone. Two others also having manufacturing problems, Johnson & Johnson + Moderna. Only Pfizer is delivering on schedule. But AZ are still yet to hit their '2 million doses a week by mid February' promise, made in January. “They’re late’, says a senior Govt figure (2)
The other problem is the timing. There is a 1st dose / 2nd dose bottle neck from March 29 onwards, which is 11 weeks on from week beginning Jan 11, which saw the first major roll out of 1st doses. The 300k a day vaccinated then MUST all have their 2nd doses, so take priority (3)
Dom Cummings is back, testifying before the Science Committee to put a marker down on his science agency project ARIA. First barrage for No10, says he's "not confident about how it will work out”, as too many restrictions already being imposed on it.
Cummings also fires a warning shot for Rishi Sunak, by revealing ARIA is already “pencilled in to get generous spending increases year on year in the Spending Review”, expected in the Autumn. ie, cut that if you dare.
A big rocket for Matt Hancock now. Cummings says "the Department of Health had a total disaster in how it buys, how it procures" during its immediate response to covid last year. Also says DHSC was stripped of the vaccine procurement task for that reason.
AstraZeneca's CEO Pascal Soriot hits back at EU tonight:
- EU's supply is 3 months behind UK's because they signed contract 3 months later
- AZ isn't holding back supply to profiteer because it sells doses for the same not-for-profit price everywhere repubblica.it/cronaca/2021/0…
- on AZ breaching its contract with the EU: "Our contract is not a contractual commitment. It's a best effort. The contract is very clear. Our commitment is, I am quoting, 'our best effort'".
- and on anti-EU bias to favour others like the UK?...
Soriot: "We're not doing it on purpose. I'm European. I have Europe at heart. Our chairman is Swedish, is European. Our CFO is European. I mean, many people in the management, you know, are European. So we want to treat Europe as best we can."
The PM's Covid-O committee meets on Tuesday afternoon to agree enforced hotel quarantining for arrivals in the UK - British and foreign - for 10 days. A huge move that "pretty much closes the borders”, says one Govt source. But I'm told much still to be decided on the details (1)
The biggest unresolved issue among Cabinet ministers is who must quarantine? The options are down to two. 1. Targeted: only travellers who've been in high risk countries - backed by Raab and Shapps - or 2. Blanket: all coming into the UK - favoured by Patel and Hancock (2)
But there are many other questions also vexing ministers tonight. High among them, how long should it last? Ensuring a vaccine exists for every variant first could mean a very, very long time. Some ministers tonight want a defined exit strategy to stop it being never-ending (3)
"Congratulations Mr President". Joe Biden has been sworn in as the 46th President of the United States. Listen to his inauguration speech live here: thetimes.co.uk/radio/live
President Biden: "We've learned again that democracy is precious. Democracy is fragile. But at this hour, democracy has prevailed".
Biden: "The forces that divide us are deep and real. But let's start afresh - all of us. Hear one another, listen to one another again. Every disagreement doesn't have to be a force for total war".
Why have 1st dose vaccinations dropped by a third down to 200,000 a day this week? That rate means the PM will miss his Feb 15 target. There is serious concern in Govt over Pfizer's announced delay to supply as it reorganises production. But I'm told that is not the reason (1)
Instead, there has been a big push to finish vaccinating care homes, and they take more time (4 to 6 hours each), hence slowing the overall effort. No10 has been promised that vaccination numbers will go up again today to closer to 300k again (2)
Ministers also think they CAN now mitigate the temporary Pfizer supply lull - which hasn't kicked in yet - with increased supply from AstraZeneca. One senior source says it will be “very very tight”, but they should “just be ok” (3)