So I will comment on one part of Frum’s piece and then link to a few threads of critiques of Zakaria’s that are relevant. Frum contends that the US needs a messaging strategy to deter future arrivals. But as @BPC_TBrown taught me, messaging doesn’t work as a deterrence
What works is developing ways to speed up adjudications with due process protections so the migrant will know whether they can receive asylum or not, a message they send back to their home countries. But that directly cuts against Frum’s opposition to asylum access at the border
And taking that step means developing a meaningful regional migration management plan with regional processing that has these adjudication capacities. It also means creating a modern border infrastructure and immigration court system for adjudications bushcenter.org/publications/r…
Aside from that new point, Frum's piece runs into the same issues I've noted elsewhere. First, his praise of MPP overlooks how relying on other countries to serve as interdiction states is not a viable long-term strategy, something the EU-Turkey deal shows
Praising MPP is also problematic because of the program's lack of oversight during a good portion of its existence, something that someone who ostensibly cares about government transparency like From should be concerned about
Finally, Frum tries to hedge his pull factor zealotry but this thread shows how a variety of factors like demographics can limit the effectiveness of US efforts to deter migration rather than working with these flows to manage them
I'm one day away from writing an op-ed that summarizes these points since they're consistent weaknesses I've seen in genteel restrictionist defenses of Trump policies. It's fine to criticize Biden's policies, but it's another thing to praise measures that had these deficiencies

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More from @CramonMigration

18 Mar
This is why the border and regional migration plans pro-immigration center/center-right groups have released merit attention. They show this political space can produce smart and humane proposals that counter the deterrence-only approach Sargent rightfully lambasts in this piece
Here are a few that are worth reading. I just worked on this @TheBushCenter white paper on smart border policy earlier this year that not only proposes a regional migration management plan, but metrics for assessing its success bushcenter.org/publications/r…
And I also worked on this @BPC_Bipartisan proposal that offered a regional migration management approach that also called for the U.S. government to have the ability to rapidly allocate sources to the border to serve vulnerable populations bipartisanpolicy.org/report/policy-…
Read 7 tweets
16 Mar
One thing that I wonder when reading statements about regional processing of migrants is whether the admin would redo the ACAs but resettle some migrants in legitimately safe third countries like Canada or Costa Rica during larger migration events where it would need help
But my wariness about the ACAs remains the same, namely they could be tools for rapid removals of migrants. And the EU-Turkey deal shows relying on other countries to resettle migrants or stop migrant flows is rarely a long-term solution to these issues bipartisanpolicy.org/blog/the-excep…
If the admin caps the number of migrants resettled through these agreements, that could partially address these concerns. But they'd need mechanisms to prevent future admins from changing the caps to make them the principle regional resettlement tools, reinforcing my wariness
Read 4 tweets
15 Mar
I've lambasted defenses of MPP like Zakaria's piece from a migration governance view since other colleagues have addressed their human rights problems. But there is one more line of criticism of these pieces to explore, which is the way MPP and the ACAs operated as black boxes
The Trump admin did not release any data during a large stretch of the program's operations. My December 2019 blog post that gathered all the publicly available data at the time found that only @TRACReports - not CBP - systematically gathered this data bipartisanpolicy.org/blog/the-end-o…
And when DHS finally started publishing monthly MPP data, it only published data from January 2020 onward, a full year after it had been in operation and sent a significant number of migrants to Mexico. Simply put, the program operated as a black box cbp.gov/newsroom/stats…
Read 7 tweets
15 Mar
The "Biden immigration agenda is too liberal/is under threat because of the border" story is starting to retread old ground. A more interesting angle is this: does the political investment in agriculture shield the Farm Workforce Modernization Act from other immigration issues?
One thing that struck me about the law's prior passage in the House was the way Members' commitments to the agricultural sector, which cover a large number of House districts, increased bipartisan buy-in into the law. Support from growers, UFW, and advocates helped get it passed
But the fusion of broad based economic interests in supporting the workforce of different elements of an economic sector is something that set the bill apart from other standalone immigration bills we've seen in recent, with the Fairness for High Skilled being one exception
Read 7 tweets
11 Mar
One thing that merits reflection when looking at the situation at the border is whether the Trump policy regime would have permanently deterred migrants from arriving at the border. And this is where the EU-Turkey deal, which sought to slow migration to Europe, is instructional
The plan slowed down migration to the EU. However, its viability came into question in 2020 as the terms of the deal weren't being implemented - including issues over payments to Turkey to support it - which created significant frustrations for Turkey reuters.com/article/us-syr…
Migrants also began making their way to Europe, albeit through dangerous routes through the Mediterranean rather than the land route. In response, EU member states like Italy and Greece began taking hardline measures against the docking of these boats ecfr.eu/special/mappin…
Read 7 tweets
9 Mar
One thing that strikes me in these op-eds is their retconning of the history of 45's border policies. Rather than implementing a clear policy vision, the admin threw policies restricting asylum access against the wall hoping they would survive lawsuits politico.com/news/magazine/…
I spoke with someone at PRM while writing about the ACAs and they said that my analysis assumed that the admin crafted the policy through a careful process, which stood at odds with the reality it simply was looking for any route to produce policies that restricted asylum
However, Lowry's piece present 45's border policies as a coherent set of policies, which is deeply misleading when criticizing a new admin with a clear policy vision for managing migration in the region and an understanding of the measures needed to address the current challenges
Read 4 tweets

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