One reason that the national conversation on vaccine availability isn't necessarily reflective of ground truth is that we've set up an auction where you pay not with money but with PMC-level brainsweat.
People who participate in national conversation have a lot of that to spend.
(This is subtly different from the PMC's diagnosis of the issue. The language of power can say what it will about root causes, but one side effect of being the language of power is that it is very, very, very good at getting what it wants out of bureaucratic processes.)
Imagine if there were figurative passwords being passed out right now to get a vaccine, and a great debate on whether publishing the passwords was justice-maximizing, conducted largely by people who professionally specialize in guessing passwords of complex systems.
Skilled password guessers might report "Things are going amazingly! I got the vaccine for trivial effort; easier than something I do every Tuesday!" while much of the population might say "Things are going terribly! I asked one person and got told No, so that's a No for me."
I'll note: there are both figurative and literal passwords, and there is an underground economy in both of them, sometimes denominated in social capital and sometimes denominated in money.
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The thing most technologists would do well to internalize is the notion of fraudogenic environments, where one can (unintentionally!) set up an incentive system which causes fraud to happen w/o there being a top-down directive to commit fraud.
This is against the intuitions of a lot of people, who think there is some seedy back room where four senior banksters in suits have developed a multi-billion dollar fraud and want them marched out in handcuffs.
It's Day 60 of VaccinateCA.com and it's a big day, but most important news first:
Today we called hundreds of pharmacies looking for the covid-19 vaccine and eligibility criteria, and published what we learned.
Tomorrow, March 15th, is the largest expansion of eligibility for California yet, to include workers in several industries plus individuals with pre-existing conditions which would place them at elevated risk.
This substantially increases the count of people eligible.
Describing eligibility in a tweet is hard so a sneak peek: vaccinateca.com/checklist ; we're publishing a tool tomorrow to help vaccine seekers (and people managing care for others) easily navigate the decision tree.
Have you ever found yourself doing something which you know is strikingly irrational and which you feel powerless to resist?
This is me when one of the banks says that I have 18 cents worth of points expiring on March 31st. "This here is a P0 drop-everything-and-resolve email."
And then I spent a few minutes reading through the various things I could convert those 20 expiring points and 100 non-expiring points into to maximize the conversion ratio, because darn it if I was going to leak 30 cents worth of margin by picking the wrong point ecosystem.
"This sounds even crazier than airline miles. What ecosystem works like this?"
There are numerous competing points systems in Japan and one thing that the less-well-distributed systems do is offer point conversion to more-well-distributed systems, often below par value.
A lot of enterprises look at payments and see a cost center. We've been getting good the last few years at turning it into incremental revenue for customers, and enterprises are starting to notice.
Payments becomes incremental revenue when you use your payments stack to optimize your conversion rate, which is particularly powerful with B2C companies.
Banging a very, very old drum for me: a lot of places treat conversion at some steps as essentially a constant. We won't.
It is a frustrating, maddening, "Seriously, what are we all doing in this industry?!?!" moment when you see how many credit card transactions are declined for no reason more than "I dunno sometimes credit card transactions get declined. YOLO."
It's been a busy few days, but we still did the same thing we do every day: call hundreds of medical professionals to confirm ground truth about the availability of the covid-19 vaccines.
The state has announced a major change in eligibility criteria (broadening of vaccine availability, including prominently to individuals with pre-existing conditions, who are at high-risk if they contract covid-19) on March 15th.
We are sprinting to get ready for this.
This is going to include:
1) Needing to understand and model how the healthcare system(s) understand pre-existing conditions 2) Assisting in communicating that message to our end-users and those of community-focused organizations 3) Rearchitecting to capture on-the-ground truth