1 yr ago today, Dr. Ioannidis wrote the below. I read it that day, agreed with nearly every word, and still do. Worth revisiting in full, but I’ve captured a few key quotes below along with my own commentary
“we dont know how long social distancing measures and lockdowns can be maintained without major consequences to the economy, society, and mental health. Unpredictable evolutions may ensue, including financial crisis, unrest, civil strife, war, and a meltdown of the social fabric”
“How long, though, should measures like these be continued if the pandemic churns across the globe unabated”
I’d love to know. We never should have implemented such devastating & unprecedented “temporary” measures without defined exit criteria.
3/8
“How can policymakers tell if they are doing more harm than good”
Good question. See CA/FL
On lockdowns- “totally irrational. It’s like an elephant being attacked by a house cat. Frustrated and trying to avoid the cat, the elephant accidentally jumps off a cliff and dies.”
4/8
On deaths-“in an autopsy series that tested for resp viruses in specimens…who died during the 2016 to 2017 influenza season…respiratory virus was found in 47%.”
“A positive test for coronavirus does not mean...[the virus] is primarily responsible for a patient’s demise”
5/8
On the possibility of long lockdown- “life largely stops, short-term and long-term consequences are entirely unknown, and billions, not just millions, of lives may be eventually at stake”
Right; as I’ve said there’s a reason no one has ever attempted to halt society before
6/8
“If we decide to jump off the cliff, we need some data to inform us about the rationale of such an action and the chances of landing somewhere safe”
Agreed. I’m still waiting for someone to show the cost/benefit analysis they undertook prior to a decision to lockdown.
7/8
When the history books are written on our COVID response, they will spell vindication for Dr. Ioannidis & others brave enough to fight the mass hysteria. For the next decade, replace the word “pandemic” with “lockdown” in every article you read about the disaster created.
8/8
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A revised look at who gets to work from home. Remember this the next time someone says "if only people would just listen"
Total US salaries & wages have surpassed pre-pandemic levels, except there are now 9.5 million fewer people w jobs.
How is that possible? Simple: the rich got richer while the poor got poorer. This is the inverse of what most lockdown supporters profess to desire in society.
Those earning >$85k were never impacted by job losses. Those earning <$30k on the other hand nearly hit 40% unemployment in April and are still ~15%. For comparison, unemployment hit 10% in the financial crisis. Note the rate for this group tanked again during winter lockdowns.
Statements like this from Pfizer remind me of Warren Buffett's quip "Don't ask the barber whether you need a haircut."
(1/6)
Pfizer has said it expects $15 billion in 2021 revenue attributable to its COVID vax. For comparison, its total 2020 revenue was ~$42 billion, with its best-selling product Prevnar 13 (introduced 10 years ago) contributing just under $6 billion.
(2/6)
So the COVID vax will instantly become Pfizer's best selling product by 2.5 times and represent a ~35% increase in total company gross revenue. For a 170-year old stodgy $200B market cap company, that is other-worldly growth.
The 10,000-Foot View: Forever Lockdown Unraveling?
A short (for me) thread on what I perceive as the current macro situation (warning: contains some optimism)
1) I believe many have overestimated the degree to which people “like” lockdown. Sure, there are some.
1/15
But rather, they might simply “support” it as they believe it to be a necessary part of our societal approach to the virus due to that claim having been repeated ad nauseum in MSM.
2/15
Further, they have merely been inconvenienced by lockdown (the Zoom class) rather than decimated (working class), so they lack any incentive to question the prevailing narrative and instead conform to what is perceived as the virtuous course of action.
So, R. Weingarten, President of the AFT and future recipient of TIME’s inaugural Worst Person of the Year award, is out gloating about how the new CDC school “reopening” guidelines are similar to what the AFT proposed in April 2020. Yes…one year ago. 1/20
First, it is obviously preposterous to look to guidelines (from a labor union) issued in the early stages of a pandemic (including raw case numbers despite 70x testing volume now) prior to much better data/science/studies being made available. But I’ll play along.
2/20
What did we know in April ‘20 about child/school transmission? Here are 15 studies/articles along w a key quote/synopsis from each.
Again, all of this has only been further solidified over the last 10 months. I’m just pretending we're stuck in April 2020 like the AFT-CDC.
3/20
Recapping 4 substantive threads: (1) 30 papers on lockdown inefficacy, (2) "lockdown" just means sacrificing the poor, (3) California's reopening is mathematical fraud, & (4) COVID lessons from free markets.
COVID LESSONS FROM THE FREE MARKET: Among other places, much of my career has been in the capital markets. Such markets are not perfect, but they are an astonishing force to behold with much wisdom to bestow upon those willing to listen. So what lessons should we learn from
1/28
the markets as it relates to the COVID fiasco? 5 topics:
1. Markets Impose Humility Upon Models
The free markets have a way of imposing humility on those who think they have conquered them. The mad modelers and gov’t leaders will swear they saved millions of lives. Did
2/28
they? Let's look at Sweden-In April the lockdown modelers said that, if Sweden did nothing, almost 100,000 people would die by July 1. So Sweden did nothing and–what happened–the total was instead 5,490 with a curve similar to every lockdown country. Its hard to overstate
3/28