Thread by @covid19indiaorg

As we see an upward trend in cases, it's important to realise that we are seeing the natural course of the pandemic playing out.

➡️ Latest sero survey showed that a large % of us were still uninfected.
➡️ We've seen large social gatherings with most restrictions lifted.

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➡️ Increased mobility across states, including crowded public transport.
➡️ New variants and possibility of waning antibodies.
➡️ Unfortunate non compliance to safety norms.
📣 It was only a matter of time that all these factors came together to result in another spike.

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This time around, we have no national lockdown, rather we have activities back to 100% normalcy in most sectors and regions. This means that arresting the spread will be more challenging.

What can be done?
✅ One key study on the dynamics of transmission

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in our 1st wave of infections had shown that 80% of cases originated from 5% of infected individuals. This showed the importance of super spreader events in transmission. It's critical that large scale gatherings - political, social, religious, entertainment are restricted.

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✅ Speed up vaccination: Unlike last time, we have a shield to protect our most vulnerable: Vaccines.
We should administer vaccines at a war footing to prevent as many deaths at this juncture.

✅ More compliance: Let's accept it, there is laxity in following safety norms.

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We need renewed public appeal to follow Covid19 safe practices. Influential political, social, religious leaders and celebrities should join in the appeal to drive up compliance.

📣 This is not about 1 state, multiple states are seeing a spike and the time to act is NOW.

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For those interested in the paper that analysed transmission dynamics in AP and TN during the first wave - science.sciencemag.org/content/370/65…