Thread by @bencoates1

A few random, fairly unoriginal thoughts on the Dutch election results:

1.despite excitable coverage, the most remarkable thing about the result is how unremarkable it was. Rutte’s VVD finished top for 4th election in a row. A man who has been PM for more +ten years will probably continue for another four. And after a series of crises & scandals...

... the current coalition increased its vote share and will probably remain in power. Beyond the media excitement, the Dutch state remains like an oil tanker; trundling steadily on, regardless of how rough the seas. Rutte is unstoppable.

2.The big story is clearly D66, who managed to ally with conservatives in power for years without alienating their more liberal base, and then still position themselves as agents of change.

Their success is mostly down to Sigrid Kaag herself - a skilled debater, who came across as more humane than technocratic rivals. If the Netherlands ever gets a female PM, it could be her, in another four or eight years

3.Negotiating a coalition will take ages. Most likely outcome remains a renewed VVD-D66-CDA-CU coalition - although CU could drop out, and another small party join. In theory CDA could pull out & we get a different leftish coalition under Rutte instead, but that looks unlikely.

4.A VVD-D66 -led government will clearly be more liberal than the current VVD-CDA one. In practical terms, the biggest shift may come in the finance ministry, which could pass from CDA -> D66. If so, expect a softer more pro-EU line on bailouts etc...

... perhaps less focus on austerity; more interventionist support during corona. Expect Rutte’s EU-bashing to quiet down. Coupled with the arrival of Mario Draghi, the dynamic at European summits is about to get quite different.

5.D66’s success shouldn’t hide the fact that this was an awful night for the left. GroenLinks and the SP both lost nearly half their seats. The PvdA under new female leadership did well to hold steady, but didn’t break through.

As elsewhere in Europe, the old organized-labour-social-democrat left is in trouble; caught in a tailspin from which it is struggling to recover. In covid times, climate change isn’t a major issue. Dutch Labour still hasn’t found its Tony Blair.

6.The CDA also had a bad week, losing nearly 1/4 of seats, and faces tough decisions about its future. Supporters won’t want them to leave government, but it’s hard to see how they pick up votes in another 4yrs of power sharing.

Blame for CDA’s bad result lies partly with Hugo deJ., for being a terrible health minister, but largely with Wopke Hoekstra, who despite a high flying career had never been tested in a campaign, and did badly. It’s hard to see him leading much longer. Buy shares in Peter Omzigt.

7.It’s tempting to portray the whole result as a victory over the far right, given Wilders slumping from 2nd place to 3rd. But that’s not true - the vote share of PVV+FVD+JA was higher than in 2017.

The FVD’s success isn’t unexpected but remains remarkable - apparently, doubling down on corona skepticism and paranoid conspiracy theories can actually win you more votes

8.It’s notable that Wilders quickly conceded victory to Rutte and Kaag in fairly gracious terms. For all the awfulness of his views, he’s not Trump, and does respect the democratic process.

9.Unfortunately you couldn’t say the same for Thierry Baudet. A few years ago he looked radical but in some ways appealing; during this campaign he became almost deranged - peddling conspiracies, violating basic principles of democracy, but picking up more votes in the process.

This is a disturbing development, which points to some broader failures in the way extremist ideas are reported and challenged. Covid deniers have got too easy a ride; the media’s often been supine. We shouldn’t lose sight of this when celebrating Kaag etc.

10.I’d respectfully disagree with this framing from the BBC (also shared by others). IMO one of the most remarkable things about the election was that Covid and vaccinations didn’t feature much at all - the proverbial elephant in the room

Stability and boringness in politics are reassuring in some ways, I suppose. Kaag’s rise is significant. But overall it’s hard to conclude accountability for recent failures was strong. Despite their sometimes anarchic reputation, Dutch people don’t like change.

FIN.

Ps. If you missed it, I wrote about the context and Rutte’s enduring popularity here - a few days old now but held up fairly well

ben-coates.com

Also working on a longer magazine piece to be published next week - watch this space!