1/n The jobs problem is going to remain with us for a very long time. 1) GDP is not growing as fast as it should 2) New jobs per unit GDP growth has come down over time 3) The number of people joining the job market is growing moneycontrol.com/news/opinion/l…
2/n The issue is that after a rebound in 2021-22, a number of fairly respected economists think that India will be stuck to a 4-6% growth range for quite some years ... this is bad news
3/n This is bad news because as many people have pointed out, we are entering a situation where even a 10% growth will not add enough jobs to satisfy the number of people joining the job market every year
4/n One reason why not enough jobs are created even with high growth is simply because a lot of the GDP is coming because of increased productivity, higher technology adoption etc and not through labour intensive jobs
5/n Also, a number of recent steps like GST and Demonetisation have pushed SMEs to the edge.. and big companies are getting more efficient and increasingly hiring fewer people
6/n Needless to say this unemployment problem is not going to end soon and there are no easy answers. The fact that the government does not think it necessary to gather official employment estimates on a monthly basis speaks a lot about its priorities (CMIE does monthly jobs)
7/n The government thinks manufacturing will create a lot of jobs. But it does not understand manufacturing trends which is headed to more automation and lower labour dependency
I had written about why our government doesn't realise that manufacturing has changed and policies need to change accordingly business-standard.com/article/opinio…
9/n Anyway, the worst part is that Labour Force Participation Rate which shows how many people are employed or looking actively for a job. The stats by CMIE are scary, they show that apart from a dropping LFPR rate, women are dropping out of the workforce.
10/n - n/n Unless we manage to sort things out, the future looks pretty bleak for the next generation.. both in terms of the economy as well as society per se because we will go back to the days when women are rare in the workplace
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