1. *The Children of Men* is set in 2021. PD James’ novel powerfully & presciently depicts a world where fertility is cratering. We’re not at TCOM levels yet, but there is no doubt that ‘21 will bring record lows in fertility. In fact, even before COVID... ifstudies.org/ifs-admin/reso…
2. We witnessed record low fertility rates across the globe in countries as different as the following:
3. What's going on, including in the Nordics, which until recently had fertility rates close to replacement level? Why is fertility falling in Nordics and so many other countries?
- Individualism
- Incomplete gender revolution (men not pulling their weight on home front)
- Secularism
- Stagnant econ opps for y adults
- Lack of work-family policies
BUT these factors cannot fully explain falling fertility of late
5. But many of these arguments cannot fully account for dramatic declines in fertility in Nordics, which have generous work-family policies, egalitarian social norms & have until recently keep their fertility rates close to replacement. See: ifstudies.org/ifs-admin/reso…@FamStudies
6. What if something else is afoot when it comes to falling fertility? Something like what @DKThomp called "workism"--the idea that work is what gives our lives meaning, direction, purpose & even community but.... isn't exactly compatible w/ having babies? theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
8. What if our devotion to work, to investing our hearts, our minds, and our time into our work, now stands in tension w turning our hearts, minds, & time towards starting a family & having the kids we say we want? What if people now think work is more "essential" than children?
9. So what do they find? "The decline in birth rates over last decade across many high-income countries—including some Nordic countries—can be partly explained by the rising importance individuals assign to work as a source of value and meaning in life." ifstudies.org/ifs-admin/reso…
10. "Highly work-focused values and social attitudes among both men and women are strongly associated with lower birth rates in wealthy countries." ifstudies.org/ifs-admin/reso…
11. Their work suggests policy efforts that are focused on equalizing the division of labor between men and women but are also *work* focused, such as universal childcare, are not likely to keep societies at sustainable fertility levels. Because they reinforce workist culture.
12. Better to pursue *familist* policies that allow and encourage both women and men to devote more time to their families/children. And, of course, foster a more familist culture. ifstudies.org/ifs-admin/reso…
is good for us, esp. when *we do it together as a family*?
Better, perhaps, than just doing our paid work/schooling by and for ourselves?
3. These questions struck me in reading about the merits of *chores for kids that are done w/ and for the family*. See below, esp. fascinating comparison between Africa v US 👇🏽
C'mon, Ezra. I'm all for Romney's new child allowance. But @swinshi's concerns about its potential effects on family & work are *legit*. It's not fair to dismiss them as "mean." Take family. What did Raj Chetty et al find was the best predictor of economic mobility for poor kids?
"Of all the factors most predictive of economic mobility in America, 1 factor clearly stands out: family structure. By [Chetty's] reckoning, when it comes to mobility, 'the strongest and most robust predictor is fraction of children w/ single parents.'” slate.com/human-interest…
2. “if fertility rates had remained at their 2008 levels (the last time we had replacement-rate fertility in America), how many more babies would have been born [over the last decade]?
1. Is “Universal Child Care” a good idea? Consider Quebec, which “launched its universal child care program in 1997.”
Evaluations found “2- to 4-year-old children who had been in child care showed significant ⬆️ in anxiety, aggression, & hyperactivity.” ifstudies.org/blog/universal…
2. “As children grew older, these negative outcomes did not dissipate: among 5- to 9-year-olds, the social-emotional problems not only persisted, but in some cases increased, particularly for boys with the most elevated behavioral problems.” economics.mit.edu/files/3103
3. “Follow-up studies conducted 20 years after the program’s inception further revealed a subsequent ‘sharp and contemporaneous increase in criminal behavior’ across Quebec, as the rate of crime conviction jumped 22 percent.”
1. A kind of “Me-First Marriage”—where marriage was seen as a vehicle for happiness, individual fulfillment & self-actualization—reached its zenith in the late 20th c. Many people thought marriage was just abt enjoying the peaks of “Mt. Maslow,” to take @EliJFinkel’s metaphor.👇🏼
2. Many assumed marriage’s other classic functions—mutual aid, financial stability, extending/receiving care to/from kin, & the education/support/care of children—could be handled to an imp. extent by state & market. Leaving men & women to pursue more indiv. model of marriage.
3. But growing social and economic inequality, economic precarity, political & social instability, and the hollowing out of so many of our civic and public institutions mean that a more “Family-First” model of marriage is re-emerging in the 21st century.