So interesting to have Mark Zuckerberg, Daniel Ek and Tobi Lutke on Clubhouse at the same time.
Would've been hard--impossible?--to do in a regular panel.
Zuck on FB:
- 1m active shops
- more than 250m people interacting with them per month
- Next few years will be explosive
Daniel Ek:
Not only does Apple get 30%, which is more than Spotify gets, but they also control our communication with our users even outside the app
Zuck:
We created a subscription service for publishers, and said we would take no revenue share, and it took a lot of back-and-forth with Apple to convince them not to take the 30% fee.
"30% tax before Apple backed down was particularly tough"
Basically, Apple is *BY DEFINITION* blocking innovation and commerce.
A restraint of commerce, by making it harder for folks to make business decisions lest they ignore the 30% Apple tax.
It's usurious and bad for everyone (but Apple).
Zuck:
If you ask people if they want personalized ads, they say YES. We know because that's what we built after GDPR.
But if you ask people "Would you like to be tracked everywhere" they're going to say no.
Pebble's founder now talking about the huge problems he had working with Apple, how Apple's private APIs give it an advantage.
Zuck: iOS 14 changes not the biggest concern I have with Apple--it's the private APIs. Both on hardware and software side.
Zuck: Can't make Messenger default SMS client on iOS. Their apps start with notifications turned on.
The differential between iOS and Android is massive.
On hardware side, integrating devices with iOS is really difficult and I think they do that on purpose. 🔥🔥🔥
Zuck: They can sell AirPods at a massive profit because it's easy to pair, in 1/2 a second and everything else in 8 seconds.
If you're trying to build a watch, which we're exploring (neural interface), if you want that to integrate with the phone, it's much easer on Android.
Zuck: The private APIs make it hard to have a healthy ecosystem.
Daniel Ek: I personally want to see an internet where every single piece of the stack is competitive.
Simple solution for antitrust enforcers: force Apple to use the same APIs as everyone else.
Tobi: Shout out to the web browser, it's incredible that it exists.
If the web browser had to be invented today, it wouldn't get through any app store. 🔥🔥🔥
Lemonade $LMND LTV/CAC calculation. First, let's look at TTM LTV and gross profit per customer. Gross profit margin is running ~18-20%. I'm assuming ~70% of S&M spend for advertising:
Also interesting to look at in-force premium growth on a TTM basis, and how many dollars of IFP growth the company got out of every dollar of ad spend ($1.76 in latest quarter):
LTV/CAC calc: assume 20% gross profit margin (IPO video says eventually 35%!), $213 of premium per year, 7.7 year lifetime = $327 of lifetime GP which / $150 of CAC = 2.2x
I haven’t yet read the 449-page report yet, but this is why Zuck said a republican government might be better for Facebook. The conclusion that we must break up our crown jewels, which are consumer staples of the 21st century and create vast consumer surplus, is asinine.
I know a half dozen wrong-headed academics who make their living as moral panic entrepreneurs will be happy about this report.
Nobody else will. Certainly not their customers—the vast majority of us.
Nobody tell the FTC about click-and-collect, delivery...🤦🏻♂️
I'm fascinated by huge market drawdowns and how the bottom is never obvious.
As they say, "Nobody rings a bell at the bottom."
In the Great Recession, the market bottomed on March 9th, 2009; it never looked back, and it was the start of one of the best bull markets ever.
Here are some choice quotes from the NYT, TWO DAYS before the bottom:
Byron Wien: he advises small investors to buy gold and corporate bonds, not equities, which, he said, may be too risky right now.
Barton Biggs: advises well-to-do investors to arm themselves with shotguns if need be against the possibility of a deepening downturn and accompanying “social unrest.”
Lyft's call last night was disappointing in 4 ways. First, while Uber feels a sense of urgency and has moved up its profitability target AND put out a 25% EBITDA target, Lyft did none of this. It's still sticking to its Q4 2021 profitability target.
Second, Uber pointed out that its EBITDA flow-thru rate was 80% (incremental EBITDA/incremental revenue) and that Dara is demanding just 55% from the team:
Meanwhile, Lyft is delivering flow-thru rates of ~30% and their FY2020 guidance implies 22% which is...disappointing to say the least: