The idea to ban vaccine exports to UK is not some kind of @VonDerLeyen whim, as many UK commentators seem to believe.

She's being pushed by EU capitals to do this, especially Paris, Berlin & Rome. Europeans are angry that 41 million vaccines have left 🇪🇺 while 0 have left 🇺🇸or🇬🇧
AstraZeneca is only delivering 1/3 of doses promised to EU, and is blaming a supposed UK 1st Oxford contract with the UK government for why the two plants in the UK can't be used to meet that delivery promise as envisioned.

10 million doses have been exported from EU to UK.
Meanwhile the US has a complete vaccine export ban, which companies have built supply chains around.

It's the reason EU factories have had to be used to supply Canada and Mexico, instead of the factories next door in the US.
To UK commentators I would ask this: if you were an EU citizen, how would you feel about such a situation?

There's reluctance in some EU capitals about starting a vaccine trade war. But by my count, there's qualified majority support in Council for this. It isn't an idle threat.

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More from @DaveKeating

19 Mar
I keep seeing the line 'EU is having vaccine problems because it was too slow in negotiating contracts' repeated in 🇬🇧&🇺🇸 media.

I want to push back on this narrative because I think it's missing where real EU-level mistakes lie. Let's review what happened in past year (🧵1/17)
AstraZeneca signed purchasing agreement with EU one day before its agreement with UK.

AZ CEO told an EP hearing last month that UK priority comes from research funding agreement Oxford signed with UK gov in Jan/Feb 2020, inherited by AZ when it partnered with Oxford in May 2020.
🇬🇧 was smart to start funding vax research before #Covid19 even hit Europe. But they made a consequential choice by (apparently) making funding conditional to Brits getting doses of any resulting vaccine 1st.

🇩🇪 funded BioNTech but did not include any Europe 1st clause.
Read 17 tweets
18 Mar
EMA Chief Emer Cooke says they have not identified any link between the #AstraZeneca vaccine and the blood clots, but they cannot rule it out.

Therefor they advise that countries continue to give it out but inform citizens to be vigilant and monitor the situation.
Asked whether EU countries should now end their AZ suspensions, Cooke says her understand was they were waiting for the result of this EMA review.

"Our responsibility is to determine whether benefits outweigh the risks so that countries can make an informed decision"
EMA elaborates on what they mean by informing AZ recipients about potential risks.

They say patients should be informed of the possible symptoms of blood clots and report them immediately. Which is normal advice for someone getting a vaccine.
Read 7 tweets
18 Mar
Breaking: The United States is reportedly about to end its vaccine export ban.
There's no sign Biden will grant EU's request to send AZ doses their way.

But this will still benefit 🇪🇺, because with Covid vaccines for the 1st time going from 🇺🇸 to 🇨🇦&🇲🇽, EU plants can send less to those 2 countries.

More doses can stay in EU.
edition.cnn.com/2021/03/17/pol…
The announcement that the US is preparing to end its export ban comes one day after the EU threatened to ban exports to countries that don't export themselves.
Read 6 tweets
18 Mar
The @EMA_News will announce its conclusion on whether #AstraZeneca is linked to blood clots at 4pm.

The most likely outcome is they say no, and countries then end their pause on the vaccine. Would mean for most, their pause will have lasted just 4 days.

Other outcomes are...
Less likely outcomes of today's EMA announcement that could prolong #AstraZeneca suspensions:

🙅‍♀️ EMA finds link between AZ and blood clots
🤷‍♀️ EMA can't reach a definitive conclusion
🙎‍♀️ EMA concludes no link but countries don't end pauses
But the likelihood of any of these 3 scenarios in which the #AstraZeneca suspensions continue has been increased by news from #Norway, where the national expert group seems to have concluded AZ did cause blood clots.

Norway is not in EU, but is in EMA.
aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/86Ow…
Read 8 tweets
18 Mar
BBC reports vaccine delivery shortfall which prompted NHS to say no more April appointments is due to #AstraZeneca doses not coming from India.

If AZ tries to make up for this shortfall by shipping from EU, the shipments will almost certainly be blocked.
bbc.com/news/uk-564386…
Such a block on AZ 🇪🇺➡️🇬🇧 shipments would use existing export transparency mechanism targeting companies and does not depend on any new export ban threat outlined by VDL that would target countries.

At this stage it's inconceivable such shipments wouldn't be blocked immediately.
One can imagine an alternative scenario where 🇬🇧 didn't insist on UK 1st contract, AZ didn't overpromise, and all 4 AZ plants were used to meet commitments to both 🇪🇺&🇬🇧. 🇮🇳 shortfall could have been made up by 🇪🇺

But that's not where we are. UK 1st contract has led to conflict.
Read 4 tweets
17 Mar
European consumers organisation @BEUC welcomes the #VaccinePassport proposal to "help citizens move freely within the EU".

But they're worried about how this will be used - which will be up to member states. There are fears of discrimination against the non-vaccinated.
"It is important that the regulation ensures that the certificate cannot be used in discriminatory ways against consumers"

"Consumers also need to be clearly informed in due time about any certificate or testing requirements that a Member State requires to enter their territory"
A group of 60 travel & tourism organisations has also welcomed the EU's #GreenPass proposal, saying it "will greatly facilitate safe free movement of citizens and restart of travel and tourism in the EU"
tourismmanifesto.eu/europes-travel…
Read 4 tweets

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