I don’t know re: fundraising, but my advice re: job interviews is similar.

Assume the first 3 will be NOs, just because you need specific practice. Do them with companies that are not first choices. Learning opportunities.

Then, you’re ready for shooting at your mark.
And if by any chance you get an offer at a company you don’t like, just refuse. You’ll still gain confidence & information about salary negotiations, interviews, etc.

They’ll make you better at interviewing at companies you want to work for, and at eventual salary negotiations
I personally began interviewing during my second year of university. I only accepted a job during my last one. All that experience doing interviews meant I could filter bad employers and get a good shot at my preferred one, for which I ended up working for 3 fulfilling years.
Had I not practiced when I didn’t want a job, I’d probably have accepted the first job offer around graduation time, even if the colleagues were unfriendly and the salary offer lowballed.

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More from @DellAnnaLuca

19 Mar
FOR A SAFER REOPENING

I took the freedom to translate the quoted thread, as it is very important. HT @XFaure for having shared it earlier.

It has great ideas, see tweets #9 and #18 below.

Translation adapted for brevity 👇👇👇 in the thread, 1/N

2/ Can we estimate a measure of the infections risks, so that we can free from the lockdowns all activities that are low-risk, while keeping away from the few high-risk ones?

The answer is yes.
3/ Let's begin with the basics. The probability of infection depends on the viral load we receive (i.e., the cumulative number of virus particles breathed in).

The denser the virus in the air, the higher the load.

Similarly, the longer we inhale, the higher the load.
Read 18 tweets
14 Mar
My interview on Roam Books @ RoamSummit

You can get a look inside a rBook, learn about the writing and publishing process, and get a peek into the future of eBooks.

My two Roam Books are “This Is Management” (gum.co/RoamBook) and “Ergodicity” (gum.co/ergodicity)
One point I made but didn’t stress enough: the value of Roam Books is notice in the reading part but in what the enable after the first read.

Full integration in your notes, creation of recaps, perspectives, spaced repetition, integration with your todo list or agenda, …
Read 4 tweets
11 Mar
ANTIFRAGILITY AND FATIGUE

The antifragile benefits from variation.

However, too big of a variation, and the antifragile breaks.
Similarly, too much small damage too often, and the antifragile breaks too.

The latter is called "fatigue".

Let's see how it works.

1/N
2/ This thread assumes you've read @nntaleb's Antifragile.

Building on it, here is a simplified visualization of how the antifragile reacts to stressors.
3/ And this is a visualization of what happens over time to the antifragile when it is hit by a stressor that causes sparse damage

The antifragile becomes stronger → it becomes both less susceptible to sparse damage and to functional damage (both thresholds move right).
Read 22 tweets
11 Mar
ERGODICITY AND THE TRAGEDY OF THE COMMONS

An example of tragedy of the commons. A city has access to a small forest.

If you are a citizen, self-interest would dictate that you cut a tree to get some wood to heat your house. But if everyone does, the wood disappears.

1/N
2/ The tweet below recently made me notice that this kind of problems can be formulated in terms of #ergodicity.

Let's see how and why it matters.

3/ One of the definitions of ergodicity is "when the outcome of a person performing an action n times coincides to the outcome of n people performing the action once."

Here is how it applies to the tragedy of the commons:
Read 14 tweets
8 Mar
ON IRRATIONAL BEHAVIOR

There are three main reasons for irrational behavior.

Thread, 1/11
The first one is an excessively-narrow definition of irrationality.

Example: playing a boardgame, your friend makes a move which is suboptimal to victory. Is he being irrational?

Only if winning at the game is all that matters. But maybe he's optimizing for friendship.

2/11
Another example: working overtime might get you ahead at work but also set you back in personal life.

In general, it's never rational to maximize performance at a given task. It's rational to maximize one's performance across all tasks. And sometimes, the two are at odds.

3/11
Read 11 tweets
7 Mar
CONSULTING AND FRAGILIZATION

Too often, consulting engagements end up making the client more fragile.

Why? What can clients AND consultants do differently?

(thread, 1/N)
2/ One possible cause is, of course, psychopathic consultants & self-centered management. But there's a lot that can go wrong even when both parties are well-meaning.

Here are 3 problems that must be addressed to avoid consulting disasters, even assuming competence & good faith.
3/ I often say, "centralization is only efficient to the central observer"

Similarly, consulting is often only effective to the central observer

If it only considers what matters to the central observer, it will only do good relative to what's considered by the central observer
Read 17 tweets

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