Thread by @swardley

X : Did you see Cummings interview ...
Me : Gove's lapdog spreading shade on Hancock, the Dept of Health and the NHS? Sad. We will need a full and wide ranging public inquiry.

X : But Aria?
Me : The application of different methods whether project management ...

... or purchasing ...

... or economic depending upon the context of what we're doing? I'm hardly going to disagree with that. But it's pointless hot air without an understanding of context i.e. no maps then you'll just mess this up.

... so, I don't disagree with Cummings on the need (see also Better for Less / Spend Control / GDS) but if you don't understand how to use multiple methods (which requires an understanding of landscape) ...

... then you'll just mess this up. You can hear the future failure being setup in Dominic Cumming's own words when he talks of two competing factions (the let it free vs the bureaucracy). It's the old "bimodal" problem (circa 2004, long before Gartner coining the term) ...

... the competing faction is because of the missing middle. This and the constant flip-flop between "one size fits all" extremes is because of a lack of understanding of context. The whole pioneer - settler - town planner model (2005) was designed to solve this ...

... but to do this, you have to a significant set of principles in place within an organisation.

That's the problem I find with Dominic ...

... he talks the talk, drops a few names here and there but doesn't seem to understand context, the principles you actually need (instead constantly relying on a few maverick heroes), has no mechanisms to bring the opposites together ...

... so in all probability, I expect Aria is likely to end up a significant waste of effort and resources. As Cummings says, it all depends upon "picking the right people" which tells you that the system itself they're creating is irrelevant ...

... it would be better if we designed Gov for constant evolution, which means you need extremes (i.e. pioneers to discover the new and town planners to industrialise) but you also need that "missing middle" and a system of theft (to recreate "crisis", "pressure").

What a waste.

I have to say, I used to think Dominic Cummings was brighter than this. The Odyssean Education wasn't half bad despite the tendency to go off the rails a bit.

But, listening to that interview it's now clear to me that he is (and was) way out of his depth.

Anyway, I'm sure he could have a glorious career at McKinsey. He certainly has the blah and lack of substance needed.

X : Can Aria be made successful.
Me : Yes but you need to have that conversation with the entire organisations on the importance of context and different methods. All are important. You could use Aria as the model for Gov funded genesis, use the market to act as "settlers" ...

... and use "the Bureacracy" where it is needed in creating highly industrialised component services, nationalised goods etc. But this requires a solid level of understanding of context and why it matters. None of that showed with Dominic ...

... he was more bureaucracy is bad, freedom loving mavericks are good. In reality all are important, if you understand context. He seems as naive as the "Agile everywhere" crowd.

X : Why naive?
Me : If you don't understand context, you won't recognise or realise where bureaucracy is valuable. By starting with a "bureaucracy is bad, freedom loving mavericks are good" line then you set up a completely unnecessary and counterproductive conflict ....

... it's like the whole Agile vs Six Sigma style debates. The solution is to realise that both are important, fall on one side and you create conflict and frustration.

X : Do you think University funding needs to change?
Me : Of course. When it comes to research then most of the metrics need to be removed. The only metric I would have is "Can you produce a Gantt Chart?" ... if you can, then it's not core research and you don't get funding.

Gov should be focused on core research areas, the bets we want to make. Applied research is best done by the market itself - think settlers, think productising.

But that alone is not enough, because settler build inertia (hence the system of theft in PST) which means if you use the market then you to need to use SEZ (special economic zones) to industrialise aspects of the market. This is needed but different from Gov funded genesis ...

... or Gov acting as VC. You could mix these different methods together if you take context into consideration. For example ... Aria for genesis, Gov as VC to kickstart, let the market run free, use SEZ to industrialise, Nationalise if you have to ...

... but that's closer to the model I see in China where context seems to matter. Dominic? Nah. Good words, no substance.