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The site runs on ghost 4.0. which was released two days ago. Temporary glitches are expected
To be fixed in the coming days. Thanks for your patience.
Gmail is rejecting confirmation emails this morning for some reason. Yahoomail. Protonmail, and everything else work fine.

I can swap your email address manually for a non-gmail address as a temporary fix, especially for paid subscribers. please DM me an alternative address..
if no confirmation email came through within 3 mins.

I am manually fixing email addresses now, so I may be slow in responding to your message. Your patience is much appreciated. 🙏🙏
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I ended up getting too many sign-ups in the first 30 mins and my server ip got flagged as a spam mailer by gmail.

Let me fix the email situation in the next 10 mins and then get back to you individually. Thanks for your patience.
The email delivery problem should be fixed now, including gmail.

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More from @Barton_options

18 Mar
Just had a crazy week for Fed Balance sheet and TGA

All numbers in $MM.

Looks like we had $109Bn QE in the past week. (yields down, good for the market)

But the $300Bn stimulus is causing short-term indigestion issues soon

(-ve = QE/spending, +ve = QT/tax)
The indigestion problem seemed to have developed at the end of Feb, when QT + deficit spending became very toxic.

QE + deficit spending seemed to be okay.
Had to spend some time to investigate some highly unusual activity, where a whale pulled $200Bn liquidity in short order, and then puked it back between 2/17 and 3/2.

Will finish up writing up the projection for the next two weeks today and launch the newsletter today.
Read 5 tweets
17 Mar
To extend or not to extend the SLR exemption?
= to have unconstrained or constrained M2 growth?

Probably the Fed will choose the latter.
Zoltan's note today showed bank holding co are getting close to their balance sheet capacity. and they can simply raise more capital, if they can be motivated with higher yield spreads.
Selling UST will only put equal-amount of bank reserve on their balance sheet, which does not solve their capacity problem at all.

So if SLR exemption is extended tomorrow (unlikely), XLF would probably explode upwards (because of the potential buybacks etc)
Read 5 tweets
18 Feb
The 2021 Texas Freeze -- a replay of 2007 Jetblue Valentine's day crisis magnified by 10,000 times.

what happened: Texas had a few inches of snow on 2/14-15. Power producer not prepared, and gas well froze in the sub-10F weather. Texas lost 30% of its electricity production.
More than 4 million customers (1 customer = 1 house) lost power: most had power outage of more than 48 hrs. some could be out of power for another 2 days in this freezing weather.

So what did Texas government/grid/utilities do? They pulled a jetblue: rather than admitting that things won't improve until the gas wells thaw (when temperature goes into 40s), they keep saying they are doing their best for recovery, giving people false hope.
Read 7 tweets
17 Feb
7 days after the intermittent blackout started (evening Feb 11th), we received these heart-warming message this morning. /s
I am just grateful that I still have 5 inches of snow in my backyard, which i can melt to flush my toilet in the unlikely event that they cut off water too. 🤣🤣🤣
With electricity still at $9 per kWh, I will let you guys know in a few weeks what life looks like when USD loses purchasing power.....🥶🥶
Read 4 tweets
15 Feb
Lighting up empty office building just to plunge Texas into rolling blackouts in the middle of a snow storm.

Going through a trading day without power outage has become a luxury.🤨 Image
Wallstreetbets squeezing Texas electricity market in the middle of night right now?

/s Image
We used to be able to import electricity from Mexico.

Guess we are not even getting electricity from the rest of the US these days?

forbes.com/sites/christop…
Read 7 tweets

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