Somewhere around 2022/3 the penny will drop with the London polit-media establishment that they’re involved in a race...

...a race to make Brexit work before N. Ireland & Scotland leave the UK.

& the last gambit they realise they can play that might just work is...

...the EEA.

It won’t be rejoin because the establishment campaigning for rejoin inside 5 years is the national equivalent of humiliating oneself & showing ones utter ridiculousness before the entire world.

But EEA.
It’s doable.
And EEA..
..will inevitably lead to rejoin.

People saying the "EU will never let the UK rejoin" are looking at the future too much through the eyes of this year's feelings.

In 2030 the world, Europe, the UK will be all very different. Virtually all European leaders will be different.
A generational change from 2016.

There may even be ways that a country could effectively join the EU which do not even exist today.

If the EU continues the way its going... 2030 it'll be somewhere around 40 countries (officially & effectively), the EURO will be along with the $ the main trading/banking curency.
& whats left of UK will simply adapt to it.
The question is only in what official form.

The EURO is quietly establishing itself as a major currency which may not seem so important to UK but the UK could find itself gradually becoming a dual currency state - where alot of business, tourism is done in EUROs.
This in itself will be a rejoin accelerator.

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More from @nicktolhurst

21 Mar

An estimated 500 000 young people have left UK due to a combination of COVID + Brexit.

A number of studies show half a million people aged between 18-39 left the UK in the final provisional years of Brexit & as COVID struck.

The decline in older people has been far less pronounced as older settled foreigners choose to stay while a significant number of older British citizens decided to return full time from EU states to the UK.

This is a good link as it shows a number of different estimates.

At this stage we don’t know exactly how many people have left - although no one serious is denying something dramatic has happened in population flows & numbers.…
Read 4 tweets
18 Mar
Many Brits don’t realise it - but we were lucky.
Being a former huge empire means having a lot of historical enemies.
But our soft power:
Sharing English with the US, London, the Beatles, the EU, cricket, British TV means we got treated well.

But theses soft powers are fading.

The “pragmatic conservative” strategy of avoiding the “unpleasant aspects” of empire & hoping our EU membership, shared modern sport, culture & commonwealth/WW II/VSO relations would take away the sting of empire was very smart...but has been trashed or running out of road...

I fear Brits have increasingly believed their own publicity.

We told ourselves a story of our plucky WWII fight to save humanity, our empire as funny dressed men spreading cricket & tea...

...but forgotten that we can’t rely on the rest of the world to see it that way.
Read 5 tweets
18 Mar
Johnson’s appeal used to baffle me.
Why do people want a clown as leader?
Until I realised it’s a form of “English exceptionalism”.

Other countries are nervous about replacing leaders with fools. But Johnson as leader is unconscious confirmation that Britain will always be fine.

This is an interesting article on this kind of “deliberately subvert seriousness” strategy.

You will notice, particularly in international events, Johnson always acts up more.
It’s an attempt to make the seriousness of the others look ridiculous.…

This is what distinguishes Johnson from Trump & Mussolini.

The latter 2 are more concerned with a strident masculinity - Johnson wants to communicate a complete disregard for the concept that Britain even needs to try to be serious - because we are so naturally superior.
Read 5 tweets
17 Mar

FCO staff have been instructed to communicate to LDC countries that post Brexit-Britain will no longer be concerned with adherence to ILO rules including those pertaining to child Labour or worker safety as part of the UKs “global Britain” strategy & break with the EU.

Just to clarify:
This pertains to ILO standards & rules in LDC countries that UK wants to do business/trade with.
This does not pertain to standards/rules inside UK.

A lot of disquiet on where this is going.

Read 5 tweets
14 Mar

After stopping ERASMUS for UK students, Boris Johnson is to effectively end the VSO - which supports thousands of young people working & teaching abroad - mostly in the Commonwealth.

200 staff at the Voluntary Services Org. to lose their jobs.…
Those with long memories may remember I suggested a smart way to get young people not so anti Brexit..& do something really useful & characters-forming would be to make an international study/work/teaching gap year free for all.

VSO would be an ideal vehicle for this.

Now gone.

While ERASMUS was always a clearly European thing...the VSO has impeccable conservative credentials grounded in the Commonwealth with (past) strong establishment support, royal family engagement & a business model that was relatively cheap.

This is institutional vandalism.
Read 4 tweets
12 Mar

One of Britain’s most critically acclaimed news-comedy shows - The Mash Report - is to be axed as part of the new post-Brexit emphasis on more “patriotic & Conservative television”.

The new BBC director Tim Davie - a prominent Conservative supporter of Boris Johnson - has been tasked with a radical overhaul of BBC comedy programming which has been perceived as too left wing & not pro Brexit.

The Mash Report was publicly identified as one of the early targets for cancellation by Boris Johnson’s “anti-woke unit” as it was highly popular with a younger demographic who tend not to get their news via either official news channels nor Govt friendly press.
Read 12 tweets

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