So, say for me, an unvaccinated adult potentially at risk for complications from covid, with an adult partner (low risk) and no children:
We are likely to drive to a destination where we can stay in our own space - say a cabin or vacation rental. Others would stay separate.
Say my friends join (2 vaccinated adults and 2 low-risk kids <10).
They would have their own space and we would plan our activities around outdoor spaces - hiking, beach, etc. Meals together would be outdoor & spaced, masks in all indoor spaces together (minimize).
Ideally, we would all quarantine for at least a week ahead of time to minimize the chances of the unvaccinated folks being infected during the trip.
If this was done carefully, we might even decide that it would be ok to risk the unvax adults & kids being close oudooors.
What likely wouldn't happen would be trips to indoor bars / restaurants or probably other indoor spaces (e.g., museums).
If cases in the area are super low, indoor activities in well ventilated, large spaces *might* be worth it (with high filtration masks). Probably not tho...
Although transmission on airplanes seems to be low, the airports & cars / transit are not as well controlled. If I had to get on a plane, I'd be getting the highest filtration mask possible to wear & really minimizing time with it off. This makes long flights (need to eat!) hard.
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As adults are vaccinated, they will be less likely to be infected, even if exposed to covid. As more adults become immune, the population who is still susceptible to infection will be mostly kids.
@CarolineSeydel@tarahaelle So, for example, if only 10% of infections are in 5-14 range, as adults become vaccinated this group is more likely to make up an increasing proportion of cases.
This is true even if their infection rate was constant bc there'd be less infected adults.
@CarolineSeydel@tarahaelle But, as more schools go in-person kids will have more contact with each other, both in classrooms and in sports, play dates, etc. so the infection rate is also likely to increase in this group.
And again, even if the chance of each interaction still had the same transmission...
First, these are pretty small studies for the subject matter.
Ex: The Irish study covers only 1381 births in the window they studied (Jan - April). A similar number of births in the prior year led to 8 extremely low birth weight infants and 12 very lbw infants vs 0 & 3 this yr.
While prior yrs consistently showed more births in those categories than this yr, it's a handful off from normal variation.
Let's add in a rare outcome with a strong effect on survival: birth defects.
Because specific birth defects are rare, we need huge samples to do meaningful studies. But many times data sources with these properties only have live births.