On the subject of vacations:

It is possible (*for some folks*) to vacation safely during the pandemic, even with others!

The key is not to pretend that children are magically protected, but to follow reasonable precautions.

#EpiTwitter: How would you behave to vacation safely?
So, say for me, an unvaccinated adult potentially at risk for complications from covid, with an adult partner (low risk) and no children:

We are likely to drive to a destination where we can stay in our own space - say a cabin or vacation rental. Others would stay separate.
Say my friends join (2 vaccinated adults and 2 low-risk kids <10).

They would have their own space and we would plan our activities around outdoor spaces - hiking, beach, etc. Meals together would be outdoor & spaced, masks in all indoor spaces together (minimize).
Ideally, we would all quarantine for at least a week ahead of time to minimize the chances of the unvaccinated folks being infected during the trip.

If this was done carefully, we might even decide that it would be ok to risk the unvax adults & kids being close oudooors.
What likely wouldn't happen would be trips to indoor bars / restaurants or probably other indoor spaces (e.g., museums).

If cases in the area are super low, indoor activities in well ventilated, large spaces *might* be worth it (with high filtration masks). Probably not tho...
Although transmission on airplanes seems to be low, the airports & cars / transit are not as well controlled. If I had to get on a plane, I'd be getting the highest filtration mask possible to wear & really minimizing time with it off. This makes long flights (need to eat!) hard.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Dominique Heinke

Dominique Heinke Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @Epi_D_Nique

19 Mar
@CarolineSeydel @tarahaelle I'll see if I can explain this via tweet!

As adults are vaccinated, they will be less likely to be infected, even if exposed to covid. As more adults become immune, the population who is still susceptible to infection will be mostly kids.
@CarolineSeydel @tarahaelle So, for example, if only 10% of infections are in 5-14 range, as adults become vaccinated this group is more likely to make up an increasing proportion of cases.

This is true even if their infection rate was constant bc there'd be less infected adults.
@CarolineSeydel @tarahaelle But, as more schools go in-person kids will have more contact with each other, both in classrooms and in sports, play dates, etc. so the infection rate is also likely to increase in this group.

And again, even if the chance of each interaction still had the same transmission...
Read 12 tweets
29 Jan
This study adds some new information on the spread of Covid in schools.

Let's walk through this and see what we can learn!

Thread!
The study follows the experience of two K-12 independent schools through the fall of 2020.

School A (Southern US): 2299 students & staff
School B (Mid-Atlantic): 1200 students & staff

The schools had similar plans re: opening, closing, mitigation
Here's where this study really stands out:

Universal Testing.

Regular testing of students & staff regardless of symptoms!

Testing was not as frequent as would be ideal, especially in the beginning. BUT this helps us glimpse how many infections are missed w/o this testing.
Read 37 tweets
2 Nov 20
When we are thinking about the best learning environment for kids *right now* it seems to me a mistake to use pre-Covid performance as the comparison.

That’s not possible in most places so the comparison it isn’t helping us answer the relevant question:

What works best NOW? 1/
Partially this is bc MANY things have changed with the pandemic.

Who among us isn’t more stressed?

Kids now live under the risk of a deadly disease.

Some have lost family.

Parents have lost jobs.

All have lost freedom and social interaction.

KIDS are different now.

2/
It is absolutely expected that test performance and learning will be lower in these circumstances - even with ideal instruction.

So when we compare Covid to pre-Covid it’s not just in-school vs at home that is being tested but:

in school - Covid vs out of school + Covid. 3/
Read 7 tweets
10 Oct 20
A few thoughts on this...

(Other folks who know much more than me should definitely chime in! Looking at you @Theresa_Chapple @JasonSalemi @COVKIDProject @EpiEllie!)

Mini thread. 1/n
I’m all for a data-driven approach & I definitely applaud the work needed to pull this data together!

But.

Epidemics & outbreaks are local.

To me, pooling data across all states-or even within a state-is asking the wrong question.

Especially since testing in kids is low. 2/ Image
One thing to keep in mind is that schools within states have different policies.

The data we see are not that of opening all schools - some are fully virtual, some partly, some not at all.

Not all kids in these analyses are in school.

This will underestimate any effect. 3/ Image
Read 13 tweets
21 Jul 20
This is based on two pre-print studies (links in thread) one in Ireland and one in Denmark.

A few cautions are warranted in interpreting these studies. I won't cover the papers completely, just a few points 👇🏻
First, these are pretty small studies for the subject matter.

Ex: The Irish study covers only 1381 births in the window they studied (Jan - April). A similar number of births in the prior year led to 8 extremely low birth weight infants and 12 very lbw infants vs 0 & 3 this yr.
While prior yrs consistently showed more births in those categories than this yr, it's a handful off from normal variation.

medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
Read 7 tweets
27 May 20
Since selection/collider bias is currently a hot topic, it seems like a good time for a #tweetorial!

Gather round #EpiTwitter (but not too close!) for a tour of my paper investigating the when's and why's of selection bias in birth defect epi. 👇🏻

1/🤷🏼‍♀️

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/pp…
One of the reasons reproductive epidemiology is trick is that you are *always* dealing with selection.

Who becomes pregnant? Who stays pregnant? Who delivers too soon? Who has an induction?

Is the population in your study a biased sample?

2/
link.springer.com/article/10.100…
Let's add in a rare outcome with a strong effect on survival: birth defects.

Because specific birth defects are rare, we need huge samples to do meaningful studies. But many times data sources with these properties only have live births.

Can we still do valid studies?

3/
Read 29 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!