Thread by @iyad_elbaghdadi

My prediction for the UK is that the full impact of Brexit is still years in the future and that it'll be a decade or more before a supermajority of UK citizens realize just how thoroughly they fucked themselves over, as the country recedes on just about all competitive markers.

Will that be the end? No. We're just too trained to look at a single data point - the present - and to paint the future in the same color. But history is not linear. When one generation fucks itself over, several next generations commit to correcting in the opposite direction.

History is not linear. Consider how WW1 + 2 led to the EU; the Great Depression led to social security; you can fill 100 tweets with examples. Some of the places on earth today with the highest religious tolerance were the very places were most blood was spilled in religious wars

What if 20 years from now, we look back and see how Trump led to the greatest leftward shift in the US mainstream in its entire history? Or how the Iraq War led to the end of US empire? Or how the next economic crisis will lead to universal basic income and a wealth tax?

(I know this thread is becoming something else, but I'm leaning into that)

What if in 20 years we can see how China destroyed itself and India ripped itself apart? And what if - just what if - we can see how the MENA's centuries under tyranny led to one of the most free, prosperous, dynamic tolerant, pluralistic, and peaceful regions on earth?

Ever noticed how some of the smartest, fiercests feminists today come from Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, etc? And that's just one trend. In 20 years who will the world be looking up to who today is growing up in Yemen, Syria, Libya, Iraq, Lebanon? Palestine? History is not linear.

So yeah, let me tie this thread together by saying this. "The UK fucked itself over" is inaccurate. "A UK generation fucked the next generation over" is more accurate. The next generation will not just take it sitting, their moment will come. Let's see what they do.