Partisan split is an easy takeaway here, but the way that *everyone* is overestimating (half of GOP/60% of inds are in top two categories!) I think lends itself to a bigger point about the difficulty of estimating probabilities, and translating small %s into so many lives.
https://twitter.com/DLeonhardt/status/1373359918686875649
Also, people (myself often included) are phenomenally bad at estimating percentages in general. I actually wonder whether people would have done better generally if instead of the numbers they got a more subjective/intuitive scale (e.g. "most," "about half," etc.)
Quite possibly not! But would be an interesting experimental design...
This is also another entry in the annals of COVID-19 polling where one story is that there's a big partisan split and another is that most people, across parties, think the same thing. (See also: last year, both parties backed principle of masking, but Dems by much wider margin.)
It's really hard to tell both stories simultaneously, but they both tell us something important.
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