Is herd-immunity probable? I was interviewed a month ago for this piece in @Nature. The conclusion of the reporter is that the answer is no. IMHO, with the emerging evidence coming from Israel the answer is YES!
nature.com/articles/d4158…
nature.com/articles/d4158…
Why? First, empirically, Israel opened almost everything and R is at ~0.66. Second, more evidence suggests that transmission-blocking is high (~90%). Third, immunization in Israel is already after the B.1.1.7 variant is dominating (>90%). 
About a month ago @geller_mic posted this model on what vaccination rate required for herd-immunity. With no restrictions and R~4, we estimated it at 90%. Our mistake was that vaccines are probably highly protective against transmission.
https://twitter.com/dvir_a/status/1359953933414920200
With R=4 and t=0.9 (transmission-blocking), we only need 55% immuned (vaccinated + recovered). Israel has passed this threshold.
Only issue left is how long the protection? With low virulence in the population, I am not sure this is a problem if we control the borders carefully.
Only issue left is how long the protection? With low virulence in the population, I am not sure this is a problem if we control the borders carefully.
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