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David Henig Profile picture
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21 Mar, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Obviously that the EU is evil and the glorious and pure UK best out of it.

Or possibly that the UK is evil and the EU is far better without our malignant presence.

Facts? Probably complicated. Easier to stick with prejudices...
I am *relatively* confident in only two things on vaccine supply. That no producing country is putting altruism first, and that complaining politicians are undermining their own side more than whoever they're complaining about.
Anyway on further reflection on vaccines what the UK government should absolutely do right now is to offer to cooperate on every grounds possible with the EU. Because its the right thing to do. We're doing it from a good position. And the EU will hate it.
Sadly we're at 5 years and counting of thinking the only way to negotiate with the EU is to yell, and avoid at all costs any suggestion of thinking about how to win. To the extent even trying to think about it immediately leads to accusations of being traitors... 🙄

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More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig Profile picture
21 Mar
As may have been mentioned a few times before we need to be careful in our handling of the EU. Which doesn't make them right. But that we have to be skilful with the bigger neighbour, particularly when they're wrong. And we have little credit right now. theguardian.com/world/2021/mar…
True the EU is only a few weeks behind the UK on vaccinations. But never mind UK or US voices, even the Commission has been drawing attention to their own failures, which has been one of their biggest failures.
We shall see, but between traditionally poor EU relations with neighbours, their poor vaccine handling, and the UK government's neglect of diplomacy, and bragging how much better we are than the EU (a source of our success) it would hardly be a surprise.
Read 6 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
20 Mar
So much vaccine talk this morning, my take fwiw is that the EU's main problem on supplies has been panicked leadership, since January and still ongoing, compounded by relaxing lockdowns too soon. And in the first case in particular some of the panic is due to UK doing better.
In terms of sheer numbers of vaccinations the EU stands 6 or so weeks behind the UK. Not great, but really not cause for the weight of threats and bluster alternately playing out since January. And for that the buck has to stop with Ursula von der Leyen. She has failed.
As we should have learnt this week if not before arranging supply of vaccines is complex. The UK did well or got lucky (a bit of both probably), the US spent a vast sum of money. The EU by its nature has not been well set up, and is line with global average.
Read 7 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
19 Mar
Thread. The UK's choices on food regulations. Refuse to align with the EU because you want to accept US food regulations in a trade deal, at the cost of greater checks of goods entering Northern Ireland. Or accept EU rules and minimise GB-NI barriers.
Of course there's an irony that the UK's regulatory sovereignty first Brexit leads us to waiting to choose US or EU regulations to reduce trade barriers with one or other, or neither and keep barriers high. But that's non tariff barriers for you.
As for the Brits not accepting the laws of others, I hadn't noticed the problem of us accepting international rules on cars or aircraft safety. Though the Conservative Party have been a bit wary of the European Convention of Human Rights. Drafted by us...
Read 8 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
19 Mar
I contributed an essay on global value chains to this, in effect, stocktake of the state of trade in 2021. Which once again in aggregate tells us what a wide range of issues are considered in global trade policy, and how difficult it is to progress any. ispionline.it/it/pubblicazio…
Simple messages - global value chains are outside the direct control of governments, manufacturing productivity means there are fewer jobs in the sector, this has delivered huge consumer benefits - with potentially far reaching consequences. Image
Trade policy uncertainty seems the new normal rather than a post-2016 anomaly. One that all governments are responding to, and has become ever more obvious when considering covid vaccines. There are no simple answers. Image
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
19 Mar
I would be a lot more sympathetic to UK government claims of appalling treatment by the EU over vaccine exports if we were not also guilty of protectionism over covid. That is strangely not being so much mentioned. thetimes.co.uk/article/eu-wil…
No doubt there is a covid challenge in which virtually ALL countries including the UK, US, EU Member States, China, India etc have at times behaved badly. So what to do? First, recognise the scale of the supply chain problem. I wrote on this yesterday.
US trade guru @ChadBown goes into more detail in explaining issues around the vaccines supply chain, and suggests a possible solution - a Covid Vaccine Investment and Trade Agreement.
Read 10 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
16 Mar
A marginal improvement in UK vaccine twitter today towards considering that EU and other countries decisions might not be primarily motivated by jealousy of the UK. But there was a worrying amount of UK insularity such that even EU-sceptics in the EU were critical of us.
Obviously twitter / UK tabloids etc but it is always the absence of nuanced debate that concerns me most. Like Brexit where neither glorious triumph or epic failure is the likely result, just changed circumstances which will have consequences.
And for the 'why always so negative' crowd, you do realise that serious businesses spend serious time and money considering everything that can go wrong? It isn't quite the gung-ho capitalism that excitable media and politicians seem always to assume.
Read 5 tweets

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