Thread by @jpr007

There are important implications from this Call Taxi Cost Analysis

Everyone thinks that autonomous call taxis are going to magically replace personal vehicles

The argument is generally based on economics

"They will be cheaper"

This argument is false

1/

https://twitter.com/jpr007/status/1373588274879467523

The cost of owning a personal vehicle is generally considered to be around $0.55~0.60 per mile in the USA

Let us allow that this should decline with the transition to BEVs, maybe falling to $0.40 per mile over time

2/

Either way, the Call Taxi Cost Analysis shows that BEV autonomous call taxis will struggle to break even at a fare rate of $1.00 per mile

So it will be at least 50% cheaper to own a personal vehicle for the bulk majority of the population who currently own a personal vehicle

3/

And there is a strong argument that says the dominant reason for people to own a personal vehicle is convenience and freedom, and not economics

4/

Therefore, with the advent of BEVs and autonomy :

1. We should NOT expect any reduction in the ownership of personal vehicles

2. We should NOT expect any less vehicles on the road

5/

3. And in fact we should expect personal vehicles to become MORE popular when they are cheaper to operate and can drive themselves

- partly because existing drivers can get more utility out of them

6/

- and partly because non-drivers will now have more reasons to own and use personal vehicles, including for the benefit of the young, the aged and the infirm

4. And of course there will be a greater proliferation of self-driving commercial vehicles

7/7