Thread by @GidMK

It's not like this is something most infectious diseases epidemiologists have been saying since March last year

Oh wait

https://twitter.com/NatureNews/status/1373768656837079047

Herd immunity through natural infection was always an absurd idea that made no sense whatsoever

Herd immunity through population vaccination is more complex

This is something covered in the John Snow Memorandum quite well, actually. There's no guarantee that immunity (even vaccine-induced) will last sufficiently long to ensure herd immunity

Even if enough people are immune locally to prevent disease transmission, the disease is almost certain to remain endemic in some parts of the world given how poorly we've spread out the vaccines

Moreover, given the expected mutation of the virus, chances are ~eventually~ people will be getting reinfected in fairly large numbers. Even vaccines are likely to require boosters

Over the 6-month timeframe it's probably around 1% of people who can be reinfected, but push that out to a year, two etc...chances are protection will wane somewhat

So while we might have LOCAL herd immunity, particularly in richer countries, it's probable that the virus will be around for a very long time to come