When I was tweeting a little while ago about how absurd health authorities' pausing of AZ was I had a lot of people in my replies saying the pause was precautionary and to "help build public confidence in the vaccine".
Who could have predicted that the public would respond to a strong signal from their health authorities that there might be an issue? Who could have predicted that subsequent reassurances wouldn't be heard? IDK, anyone who's ever followed a moral panic about vaccines maybe.
What weight did these bureaucrats put on the variable "this might collapse public confidence in the vaccine" when making their "precautionary principle" decision?
Meanwhile further evidence of how utterly bobbins the earlier guff from health authorities and politicians about not being sure whether the AZ vaccine works in over 65s was. Another nonsense story which eroded confidence:
Thoughtful replies noting that the fieldwork here was entirely before the decision to resume vaccination. So it’s possible confidence will rebound. But these polls do highlight that “precautionary” decisions come with their own substantial risks
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Wouldn’t it be useful to have a recent case study to test the rationality of regulators on this stuff. Like, IDK, just spitballing here, a regulator banning use of the same vaccine for over 65s based on nothing at all?
Or, random top of the head scenario, health officials in a large European country anonymously leaking to that country’s paper of record false information about the same vaccine’s effectiveness? Which the journalist in Q never addresses or apologises for?
"UKIP, but tax cuts instead of immigration cuts". There's always been a chunk of Con activsts (& MPs) who like this idea. I'm not sure there's an electoral market for it, but thanks to Tice we get to find out.
Problem is that there is always the confounding hypothesis: "UKIP is Farage and Farage is UKIP". But then that causal line works both ways. Maybe Farage is departing politics because he knows this recipe is doomed to fail, rather than its failure being due to his departure.
FWIW, in my own research on UKIP economic right wing ideology was seldom a strong predictor of support. Immigration, national ID and the EU did all of the work. As we show in Brexitland, Brexit was similar - identity and social attitudes strongly predict Leave, econ atts don't
One year in, and still the message that outdoors is just vastly safer than indoors still hasn't got through. Let people hang around in parks. The risk is tiny.
"super-spreading—the biggest driver of the pandemic—appears to be an exclusively indoor phenomenon. I’ve been tracking every report I can find for the past year, and have yet to find a confirmed super-spreading event that occurred solely outdoors".FFS let ppl have their park cans
Basically everything laid out here by David Shor re the US Dems 2016-20 has also happened to Labour since 2010, except the bit where minority voters defect to the right. And if Trump can win minority votes, then I suspect a Johnson/Sunak/Patel Con party could also...
This big realignment around education, and the potential tensions this creates between identity liberal white voters and BAME voters who are more socially conservative (even on some identity issues) are big themes of my book with @ProfSobolewska Brexitland
This is literally stuff we fail students for on intro quant methods classes. @patricksturg you may be interested in checking through this latest example of duff survey research