Much has been written about K-shaped recovery, mostly focused on jobs. High-earners doing OK; low-earners still jobless
A similar divergence is happening in housing: rents for high-end, luxury digs have plummeted; rents for poor held steady or even *rose*…
Here's a look at Chicagoland neighborhoods. Ritzier neighborhoods (e.g., River North, Old Town, Streeterville) have gotten much cheaper in the past year. In lower-income (and often majority-Black) areas like Englewood, Chatham, Washgton Park, rents are up.…
So, what's going on? Why are lower-earners getting squeezed from both directions -- drop in earnings, AND increase in rents? Why are higher-wage households getting a break on their rents that they don't really need?…
Dynamics at high-end easier to explain. Renters w/ means to leave dense urban living did so, with lots of higher-income renters transitioning to homebuyers in the 'burbs. Also, lots of high-end supply came on market last year, just as demand was falling…
At low end of market, a few possibilities. One is that a lot of people tried to save money by moving down the housing ladder -- downsizing or downgrading. Since there was *already* a shortage of affordable units, this bid up prices at the bottom.…
Additionally, rents at low end are already close to operating costs. Landlords might be less able/willing to give tenants a break on rent if their own costs go up.…
Eviction moratorium shields desperate tenants from displacement and homelessness. Which is generally a good thing. But, there might be some unintended consequences - landlords stuck with tenants who can’t pay may try to offset these losses by raising rents on everyone else.
Low-income renters also have limited ability to push back on rent increases, given costs of moving and very limited outside housing options.
True not just during a pandemic of course -- though pandemic made these things worse.…
The American Rescue Plan has $$ for emergency rent relief and vouchers. This will help some tenants. But truly addressing high rent burdens on the poor, both during pandemic and after, will ultimately require increasing the supply of affordable housing.…

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More from @crampell

19 Mar
number of IRS revenue agents is down by 43% since 2010, per @TRACReports. As you might expect, audits of millionaires and large corps also are way down, and money is being left on the table.…
Audits of millionaires charted below. Per TRAC: "In FY 2012, audits of millionaires turned up $4.8 billion in unreported taxes. Now with less than a third the number of audits, the government uncovered only $1.2 billion in unreported taxes in FY 2020."
Audits in FY2012 of corporations with ≥$20 billion in assets turned up $10 billion in unreported taxes; by FY2020, was down to $4.1B.
Among broader set of corps reporting >$250M in assets, audits turned up $24.4B in unreported taxes in FY2012; fell to just $5.4B in FY 2020.
Read 4 tweets
13 Mar
Reader responds to my column praising child allowances: babies and children "have NOT worked a day in their lives," therefore are undeserving of government investment
#readermail Image
for too long lazy babies have been suckling the government teat. time to pull themselves up by their adorably tiny baby bootstraps
Read 5 tweets
8 Mar
was this published purely for the hate-clicks…
when you're definitely a good judge of bagel quality
To those bringing Canada into this: Look, I like the baked goods that people in Montreal call bagels, but they're so different from NY bagels they might as well be an entirely different food. It's like saying "My favorite kind of cheesecake is a burger"
Read 4 tweets
5 Mar
Generally a strong report. Headline job growth came in above expectations (+379k), and unemployment fell for "right" reasons (more joining LF). Leisure/hospitality increased by 355,000.
But some warning signs...
*# long-term unemployed changed little over the month and is up by 3 million over the year.
*big state/local govt job losses, esp in education
*U-6 (broader measure of underemployment) still stuck at 11.1%
The jobs deficit today is finally a wee bit smaller than it was at the worst of the Great Recession, so that's an improvement! But it's not THAT much smaller...and the Great Recession was pretty awful.
Read 7 tweets
3 Mar
Even if they're allowed to sell every seat in the house, at prices most people already can't afford ($60/ticket for the top row of the balcony), most B'way shows lose money. How on earth could they make the economics of this work?
Take a long-running show that already recouped its investment, Book of Mormon. The last week it was open, it grossed $929,168, with nearly every seat sold (98%). That's $116,146 per performance.
Average ticket price was $112.67; top ticket was $477.50.
I don't know what it costs to operate the show. Has a large cast. This Crain's article says that the first year the show opened (2011), expenses averaged $634,052 weekly. Presumably higher today. Let's conservatively say $700,000, or $87,500/performance…
Read 6 tweets
3 Mar
If there's "strong consensus" among economists "about lack of employment effects," that would seem to be news to economists themselves. There is a lot of uncertainty and disagreement about this question within the profession! E.g.:…
Even if you look at just the labor economists on the IGM Panel, they don't have consensus either. Asked if $15 min wage would reduce low-wage employment in some states, Altonji, Hoxby, & Shimer say yes. Autor says no. Bertrand, Hoynes say uncertain.
If anything, plurality on IGM panel overall said $15 min would reduce employment. Maybe you think they're wrong. Maybe any disemployment effects wd be small, less important than other good effects of the policy -- but don't pretend there's a "consensus" on labor effects
Read 6 tweets

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