Thread by @autistuprising

#Bitcoin recent monthly highs vs final Friday (options exp date) monthly close:

November: 19,450 / 15,790

December: 25,400 / 22,500

January: 42,300 / 28,600

Feb: 58,000 / 43,800

March: 61,780 / ?? but 6 Billion expiring on Deribit alone this Friday & max pain @ 44k

The trend clearly shows that early month #BTC pumps are well designed traps intended to bait in monthly call buyers at the top before dumping into mean reversion toward’s month end

200 million of notional call value @ 80k strike expiring on Friday

Over 150m of notional value $ETH call strikes 2240-6000 also expiring on deribit this Friday

Selling deep OTM #BTC April calls seems like a good idea looking at this objectively month over month momentum has been finding higher floors but rapid price appreciation has faded

TBH looks like it’s trapping dip buyers into the quarterly close, but I think it’s likely that small dip goes significantly deeper in April as institutions rebalance for q2. #BTC has already given them 50-100%+ ytd returns, that will be distributed and bought back lower imo

The OI on April 80k calls is simply too high without being high enough. Looks like greedy plebs & mm hedges rather than whales positioned

In best case scenario where uptrend continues for remainder of ‘21 I still think April will spend bulk of it’s time sub 50k, then maybe pump to 60s EOM, followed by 80k breach late May

This would wreck 80k April call buyers & 100k May call buyers (top OI positions) seems right