Rep. Filemon Vela announces retirement ahead of GOP-run redistricting, via @allymutnick: politico.com/news/2021/03/2…
Vela's seat is in one of several South Texas districts where the Democratic share of the electorate shrank from 2016 to 2020. And Republicans are expected to screw over at least one of the 3 House Ds in border region along with Cuellar and Gonzalez:
https://twitter.com/danielmarans/status/1366495365734752258
Obviously there's the safe El Paso seat where Veronica Escobar, and technically that's along the southern border too. And before Will Hurd won his seat representing the vast swath of land between El Paso and Laredo, Dems often won there (Pete Gallego, Ciro Rodriguez) ...
Vela's numbers didn't drop nearly as much as Gonzalez's.
He went from 62.7% of the vote in 2016; to 60% in 2018; to 55% in 2020 when Trump clearly helped many down-ballot Republicans in parts of Texas.
He went from 62.7% of the vote in 2016; to 60% in 2018; to 55% in 2020 when Trump clearly helped many down-ballot Republicans in parts of Texas.
Vela's district has Brownsville; Gonzalez's has McAllen and other points West of there.
Vela at left here; Gonzalez at right.
Vela at left here; Gonzalez at right.
If Rs cluster more Dem-leaning border towns into Gonzalez's district and create a new, solid GOP rural district outside San Antonio, that's bad for Dems as a whole but good for Gonzalez.
... Unless voters in border counties keep trending GOP and Trump/2020 wasn't a fluke. Then Democrats could be looking at 3 more once-solid seats that are now in the swing category.
So far, Cuellar has proven most resistant to the shift toward Republican candidates in the area.
So far, Cuellar has proven most resistant to the shift toward Republican candidates in the area.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
