Bob Loukas 🗽 Profile picture
Mar 22, 2021 8 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Waiting patiently. Day 59 of the #Bitcoin Cycle with a looming Cycle Low in focus. Day 50 bull trap behind us.

This is my preferred look at what's possibly coming up.

Lows can dip further than expected, and to be bought. Otherwise buy ATH break. (Traders) Image
"IF"

If we get another 60-day Cycle that continues Oct-20 trend to $80k-$100k, then I believe we're going top with sizable 40-50% correction, that takes MANY (4-6) months to consolidate.

The entire 60-day cycle gain would be erased. Prefer 60-day consolidation from this point Image
And in such a scenario, I will be forced to sell 15% of my $BTC. 🙊

#4YearJourney #blasphemy
Target hit, cycle on Day 64.

Now we can begin looking for Cycle Lows. "Lows can dip further than expected"

Not convinced until the fat lady sings. Image
Interestingly, the 20-week moving average is at $36k, will be $39k within 2 weeks.

That level would certainly reveal who is swimming naked.

Yeah I know, institutions would never allow that. 😉
Progression of a cycle. Patience.

#Bitcoin

This is a new cycle. Question is does it take the same form (as the prior 3). Image
Still tracking this Cycle outlook. #bitcoin

12hr bollinger bands tightest since rally Oct2020 started. VOL down. Volumes low.

This 6-month rally has re-fueled (8th consolidating week at $1T mcap zone). Time to reveal intentions. Close below $53k get worried. Image
#bitcoin Cycle progression, going to plan. They're not always this neat.

Nothing more one can do, but sit tight and wait. No stress, out of your control. $BTC Image

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More from @BobLoukas

Jul 27
You’re investing actions today will have significant impact on you decades later.

There is a tendency to ignore or discount this impact, choosing to seek the perceived quick path to success.

However, the reality is few survive on that path.

Weekend rambling 🧵
I’m not suggesting you have to be boring and conservative. And grind for decades to some promised land way in the future.
There is room for speculation and a time to swing for fences.

But it’s about limiting those swings and taking shots that have reasonable degrees of success, relative to their outsized potential.

The speculative angle of a portfolio also requires discipline, more so perhaps.
Read 10 tweets
Jan 18, 2023
Seeing lots of “echo bubble” talk lately around bitcoin.

Interestingly, i introduced that idea in my first 4Yr video back in 2018, as a possible event for the “2023 into early 2024 period”!
And talked about it often since.

It’s called a Left Translated cycle.

<Long thread>
A Left Translated cycle peaks early and spends more time in a bear phase.

On a 4 yr timeframe, something like only 12-18 months up to a peak, instead of the 32-38 months.

Why?
Because there is a longer dated Cycle (possibly a 16 yr cycle) that is due to turn down and make its run to its Cycle low.

On that timeframe, the final or the 4th x 4yr cycle would be the true bear cycle.
Read 15 tweets
Dec 16, 2022
A wrap on some charts as I look to close down for the year.

⬇️
S&P500 - was looking for a potential long (trade) early in week, but never got the setup. Good, because we could have a failed Cycle.

Seasonality is good, but the chart is not. No trades. Underweight long account. Image
Gold looks to have made a significant bottom. Long for a trade and riding this early trend.
The weekly looks good. Just got to let it play. Image
Read 8 tweets
Dec 11, 2022
Many traders don’t act on their instincts or intuition due to lack of trust or confidence in themself (their system).

1/n
This all comes back to knowing yourself and developing a strategy that’s defined, personal, and developed over time.
When that’s in place, it gives the trader the confidence to act on their instincts because all the outcomes can be defined, managed, and in one’s control.
Read 9 tweets
Nov 11, 2022
$BTC needs to reclaim $19k relatively quickly (next day or two), to put a Cycle behind it. Otherwise the market would be signaling a deeper cut is required. That's my read.
Adding some clarity on this.

From an ultimate low or end to bear market, this does change things. 👇
FTX was a surprise to 99% of FTX employees and large cap investors. Meaning, this event was not pre-priced in. Impact is liquidity but more important, trust.

This delays and slows the build out of the next bull phase, but it doesn't kill it!
Read 7 tweets
Nov 7, 2022
A thread on the #FTX saga.

Firstly, I'm essentially clueless on the FTX situation.

I know one simple rule. Generally where there is smoke.......

And this is especially true in crypto.

Not intended to be FUD, and for the sake of the space, hope this passes quickly.
In investing, the #1 priority of an investor is to protect capital first.

This type of event has a way of becoming self-fulfilling.

Especially if $FTT token is the collateral backing everything or the primary "asset" on the books. Because let's face it, it's faith based.
So the question here really is, is the Alameda/FTX complex solvent with $FTT priced at $3? If the answer is yes, then should be fine. If it's no, then run.
Read 4 tweets

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