Waiting patiently. Day 59 of the #Bitcoin Cycle with a looming Cycle Low in focus. Day 50 bull trap behind us.
This is my preferred look at what's possibly coming up.
Lows can dip further than expected, and to be bought. Otherwise buy ATH break. (Traders)
"IF"
If we get another 60-day Cycle that continues Oct-20 trend to $80k-$100k, then I believe we're going top with sizable 40-50% correction, that takes MANY (4-6) months to consolidate.
The entire 60-day cycle gain would be erased. Prefer 60-day consolidation from this point
And in such a scenario, I will be forced to sell 15% of my $BTC. 🙊
Seeing lots of “echo bubble” talk lately around bitcoin.
Interestingly, i introduced that idea in my first 4Yr video back in 2018, as a possible event for the “2023 into early 2024 period”!
And talked about it often since.
It’s called a Left Translated cycle.
<Long thread>
A Left Translated cycle peaks early and spends more time in a bear phase.
On a 4 yr timeframe, something like only 12-18 months up to a peak, instead of the 32-38 months.
Why?
Because there is a longer dated Cycle (possibly a 16 yr cycle) that is due to turn down and make its run to its Cycle low.
On that timeframe, the final or the 4th x 4yr cycle would be the true bear cycle.
Many traders don’t act on their instincts or intuition due to lack of trust or confidence in themself (their system).
1/n
This all comes back to knowing yourself and developing a strategy that’s defined, personal, and developed over time.
When that’s in place, it gives the trader the confidence to act on their instincts because all the outcomes can be defined, managed, and in one’s control.
$BTC needs to reclaim $19k relatively quickly (next day or two), to put a Cycle behind it. Otherwise the market would be signaling a deeper cut is required. That's my read.
Adding some clarity on this.
From an ultimate low or end to bear market, this does change things. 👇
FTX was a surprise to 99% of FTX employees and large cap investors. Meaning, this event was not pre-priced in. Impact is liquidity but more important, trust.
This delays and slows the build out of the next bull phase, but it doesn't kill it!
Firstly, I'm essentially clueless on the FTX situation.
I know one simple rule. Generally where there is smoke.......
And this is especially true in crypto.
Not intended to be FUD, and for the sake of the space, hope this passes quickly.
In investing, the #1 priority of an investor is to protect capital first.
This type of event has a way of becoming self-fulfilling.
Especially if $FTT token is the collateral backing everything or the primary "asset" on the books. Because let's face it, it's faith based.
So the question here really is, is the Alameda/FTX complex solvent with $FTT priced at $3? If the answer is yes, then should be fine. If it's no, then run.