Thread by @michaelmina_lab

Thread: NEW Rapid Test Research!

Population-wide Rapid testing over a two week period of time (Rapid Ag testing of ~50% of population each weekend for two weekends in a row) PLUS subsequent quarantines led to ~70% reduction in prevalence.

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science.sciencemag.org/content/early/…

Figure above shows the relative reduction in prevalence that occurred - which was consistently substantial across the regions where the population wide rapid testing was performed. Centering around 58%. Compared to what would have happened, the effect was even greater (70%)

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The authors used mathematical models to help understand if the effect noted was due solely to tests, solely to the isolation and quarantines imposed or to both.

They found very strong evidence that it was the overall program - the rapid testing PLUS the behavioral changes

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For these testing approaches to work - they need to be continued. Unfortunately Slovakia was not able to continue using the wide-scale testing after the first two weeks and testing stopped. Incidence unsurprisingly thus continued it's march upwards and Slovakia.

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Having seen the successes of the prior program, Slovakia is beginning anew to roll out rapid testing to the country in new approaches - making them more accessible, at home, not such a mandatory top-down approach.

It will be important to watch how this next stage goes.

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This study led by Martin Pavelka, @sbfnk and many additional folks listed here.

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Also just want to note that the results from Slovakia fit our estimations very well. W/ @DanLarremore we looked at impact of population-wide testing:
Found testing 50% of pop would turnover an outbreak quickly.
advances.sciencemag.org/content/7/1/ea…

Also co-senior authored by @StfnFlsch along w @sbfnk