I know Twitter isn’t often a place for empathy & understanding, especially on Brexit🇪🇺🇬🇧
But a short 🧵 on why business & their staff need a bit just now.
For those saying to businesses like @LochfyneLangous below “You should have known what was coming!”, a few reflections...
When @BorisJohnson said on Xmas Eve “there will be no non-tariff barriers” it wasn’t a one-off error. It was a pattern over months & yrs of saying barriers wouldn’t exist when they would. Can we blame businesses if they’re now shocked at what they face?
Even on 1 Jan, the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland said there was no border in the Irish Sea. There were many trade experts who knew the reality & tried to warn us (thank you!), but denial of reality, big red buses and accusations of “Project Fear” got more airtime.
Some facts about businesses’ ability to prepare for Brexit👇
🇪🇺It was a transition period without knowing what we were transitioning to
🇪🇺A deal was agreed on Xmas Eve & came into force 7 days later
🇪🇺The final Border Operating Model was published with 6 hrs to go, on Hogmanay!🥃
Perhaps the cruellest aspect of the Brexit timing:
We👏were👏in👏the👏middle👏of👏a👏pandemic.
Business & staff had had their lives turned on their head. Gallingly, Covid is now cited as the reason EU exporters have a grace period selling to GB. Where was the grace period for us?
To those saying “you voted for it, own it”:
🐟Many in fishing didn’t vote for it
🐟Few business groups saw any Brexit benefit, so fishing got disproportionate airtime
🐟Those who did vote leave did so with hope, not malice. Dashed hopes, maybe, but more empathy less attack pls.
The reality is, we’re now all living this Brexit.
2016-2020 was dominated by competing ideologies.
But in 2021 we now have hard evidence.
We have the first official trade stats of the post-Brexit world.
‼️A warning: some viewers may find the following figures disturbing👇
I remain (naively?) hopeful that logic will return. There’s solutions out there, see this from @pmdfoster for the best of them.
It leaves two questions:
👉Is there political will to pursue them?
👉Will they come before EU supply chains restructure away from the UK for good?
Final point: A lot of ppl are working incredibly hard on the issues, incl. govt officials. There are also trade commentators & journalists working relentlessly to shine a light on the reality, despite the story inexplicably being miles down the news agenda.
To them, thanks!
ENDS
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BREXIT; a 🧵 at the end of week 4.
Spoiler alert: it’s not good.
➡️It’s turns out that UKGovt saying things are getting better or that it’s “teething problems” doesn’t make it so.
➡️There is much more trouble ahead.
➡️The worrying parallels between Brexit and Covid responses.
Four reasons things will worsen: 1. freight volumes aren’t close to normal, they’ll rise.
In April (8 weeks): 2. the 1st real checks on EU imports start (bad news for food flow & haulage availability) 3. GB/NI grace periods end 4. more food products fall under new export rules
❗️Warning, we’ve been here before:
- Experts warn of trouble coming
- A short window to act
- UK Govt hopes it will all be OK, ignores evidence & warnings.
- Fails to act until too late.
For previous episodes, see end of the transition period (and Covid strategy)
The reality of Brexit so far for many.
As of tonight, consolidated food loads are still not being taken to the EU by the main logistics firms. This food supply chain is now complex, costly & had no time to test its new systems. The result: EU trade has ground to a halt for many.
Daily meetings/calls trying to work through Brexit blockages. Problems so far include:
➡️Companies & hauliers struggling with paperwork
➡️IT systems in UK & France going down
➡️Food loads stuck because official product codes can’t be found
All efforts going into solutions
➡️Another session tmrw led by @SeafoodFromScot@ScotDevInt with companies on specific problems
➡️@FSScot has good resource at hubs. Logistics firms putting more staff in too
➡️Ministerial dialogue at Scottish & UK level
However, a key UKGov ask👇
🚨BREXIT UPDATE, Sunday
More messages from food exporters who are finding the door to the EU is now shut. Haulage firms won’t take their loads; bureaucratic/IT systems failing.
A multi-billion pound trade system is being tested for the 1st time, in real time. And it’s going wrong
Brexit, week 1 was bad. Week 2 will be worse.
UK Govt’s dismissal of the request from us (& most main business orgs) for a grace period was a critical mistake. By this time next week, pressure to revisit that will be even greater. Emergency financial aid may also be necessary.
The crux of all this is sheer complexity & lack of prep time. For a product that has 24hrs to get to market, small delays at diff points are crippling. This is the “simplified” 18-step process for moving fish from Scotland to France. This, on top of 8-step process for importers