Today marks one year since the COVID crash's bottom, when the S&P fell more than 30% in a bit over a month.

After a decade of hedge funds woefully underperforming simple index-fund investing, this should have been their moment to shine.

They did not. americancompass.org/essays/coin-fl…
Data on the performance of hedge funds and private equity in the COVID crash's wake is now available and, as @wellscking shows in the latest @AmerCompass Coin-Flip Capitalism update, the picture is not pretty. americancompass.org/essays/coin-fl…
The defense of hedge funds and their disastrously subpar returns in recent years has always been that they are specifically designed NOT to track the market and they provide value precisely because their performance is uncorrelated.
But in Q1 2020, as COVID roiled the markets, hedge funds... fell by 11%. Three-quarters of funds were down. Oops. Proving itself nearly as effective a hedge, your grandmother's simple balanced portfolio of 60% stock index fund, 40% bond index fund fell by about the same amount. Image
Then in Q2 2020, as markets recovered, hedge funds... followed them right back up with them, but lagged behind the simple balanced portfolio. After the first half of 2020, hedge funds were still slightly down for the year, while the balanced portfolio was up. Image
Over the past ten years, hedge fund managers have underperformed a balanced portfolio by 100 points and the S&P 500 by 200 points, while apparently failing to provide the hedge for which investors sacrificed those returns and paid countless billions in fees. Image
For all the data on Coin-Flip Capitalism and the failures of private investment funds, visit the @AmerCompass Returns Counter.

americancompass.org/projects/coin-…

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More from @oren_cass

25 Mar
Thread (1/12). How have Wall Street's fortunes diverged so radically from Main Street's in recent decades? I think a large part of the explanation comes down to our misunderstanding of the word "investment." Most "investors" are doing nothing of the sort. americancompass.org/essays/specula…
2/ My new research brief @AmerCompass classifies publicly traded companies as "Sustainers" or "Eroders" depending on whether they are investing faster than they use up their past investments. Our economy has undergone a transformation. americancompass.org/essays/the-cor…
3/ Half a century ago, the vast majority of companies were Sustainers -- actively investing to grow their capital stock. Now Eroders predominate, returning record amounts of cash to shareholders even as they fail to make the investments they need. Image
Read 13 tweets
12 Mar
Amazon has repeatedly pushed the envelope on labor practices and then retreated or claimed to reform in the face of bad PR. Come with me on a brief tour of the past decade:
2011: "Instead, they said they were pushed harder and harder to work faster and faster until they were terminated, they quit or they got injured. Those interviewed say turnover at the warehouse is high and many hires don't last more than a few months."
mcall.com/news/watchdog/…
2011 contd: "During summer heat waves, Amazon arranged to have paramedics parked in ambulances outside, ready to treat any workers who dehydrated or suffered other forms of heat stress. ... And new applicants were ready to begin work at any time."
mcall.com/news/watchdog/…
Read 18 tweets
2 Mar
Today @nytimes, I separate the debate over child allowance proposals into two separate questions:

(1) Should we send more financial help to working families? ✅

(2) Should the safety net deliver unconditional cash to the non-working poor? ❌

nytimes.com/2021/03/02/opi…
American families are struggling to make ends meet and an expansion of the social compact to better support them makes sense. But such a program should expect that families are doing their part to support themselves, and go to those with at least some earned income.
By contrast, trying to tackle poverty by just giving cash to households disconnected from the workforce is a bad idea. We should absolutely have a strong safety net, but just "Give People Money" isn't the right answer.
Read 5 tweets
18 Feb
1/ Diving into the family-benefit debate, @wellscking and I are out with a new paper and proposal @AmerCompass today: The Family Income Supplemental Credit. We believe this keeps the best of child allowance proposals while addressing their flaws. 🧵americancompass.org/essays/the-fam…
2/ We argue that an effective family benefit should be designed as an expansion of the social compact and a form of social insurance, helping working families face the costs of child-rearing at a time when they are ill-prepared for it financially.
3/ By contrast, we should not consider "just send everyone money" an effective anti-poverty policy for non-working families. It's not the right way to address poverty, and it erodes important economic and social linkages between income and work.
Read 11 tweets
20 Jan
With the post-Trump era underway, the debate about conservatism's future moves ahead.

My recent @WSJ @AmerCompass conversation with @GeraldFSeib @GeorgeWill helpfully distills some of the conflicts between the Legacy (Will) and Reform (Cass) sides. americancompass.org/the-commons/a-…
Conservative focus: (1/5)

Legacy: Rapid economic growth and a return to the debate about reforming entitlements.

Reform: New conservative solutions to new challenges like China, inequality, technology, financialization, which may mean a different role for government.
Policy agenda: (2/5)

Legacy: First, free trade. Second, geographic mobility. Americans have to be willing to get up and move.

Reform: Investment, labor, education. Policies should make the economy work for for people, not demand that people up and change for the economy.
Read 7 tweets
5 May 20
The inaugural @AmerCompass essay series, Rebooting the American System, makes the comprehensive, conservative case for a return to robust national economic policy. This was the American tradition from the Founding, and paid enormous dividends. (1/11) americancompass.org/rebooting-the-…
The series opens with forewords from @marcorubio and @SenTomCotton, who situate the concept in our present context: a once-in-a-century pandemic and a generation-defining contest with China. Both highlight vital national priorities that the market will not address on its own.
Senator Rubio emphasizes the inevitable tradeoff between efficiency and resilience. A market economy geared only toward maximizing the former will inevitably erode the latter, but the nation needs both and public policy must help to strike a balance. americancompass.org/essays/marco-r…
Read 11 tweets

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