It has to be said PMNL/Sharifs are masters of narrative building. PTI simply can’t compete. The cuckoo IPP contracts were not a product of incompetence, but a well thought out strategy to befuddled the Pakistani people by razzle-dazzle that they’ll pay thru their noses for years
PMLN knew exactly what they were doing when the kept PKR overvalued by borrowing USD to support the currency. It suppressed inflation & kept interest rates artificially low. Moreover, it fuelled consumer driven growth, which gives them boasting rights that it now shoves down our
throats - little matter that it decimated exports & exploded trade deficit. Although they knew that collapse was inevitable as such consumption driven growth, fuelled by excessive levels of borrowing is never sustainable. The pièce de résistance of this was dubious IPP enterprise
It not only made growth figures look rosier, but provided the fig leaf that the unsustainable borrowing was for productive purposes. It also ensured a grave was being dug should any unsuspecting knave take power from them. If re-elected they always planned to immediately go to
IMF. Any number of excuses could be conjured for that was necessary. Their official spokespersons have officially said so and accused PTI of not going soon enough. Also, they could tell the voters that it was time to pay up for the good times provided by them in previous 3 years.
PTI was almost exclusively focused on corruption, which always going to be difficult to prove given the judicial process & prosecution limitations of NAB. The inbuilt booby traps of inflation by having to devalue PKR to realistic levels and power tariff hikes necessary because of
the Tsunami of capacity charges that was always going to crash on an incoming govt. However, it was ignored until recently. Now as the circular debt increases inexorably, the government has to further hike rates, & the entire blame is put on incompetence of PTI. Well played PMLN!

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More from @javedhassan

20 Jan
UK High Court Hon Mrs Justice Moulder’s #Broadsheet 2018 judgment leaves no doubt that at least $100mn of Sharifs assets were of unexplained origin. Had they been legally acquired & declared to tax authorities as claimed by a lawyer, no UK court would treat them as RECOVERABLE
The Honourable judge arrives at her conclusion with respect to value of recoverable assets on the basis of “....the potential net recovery by respondents (Broadsheet) after taking account of all relevant factors”
On the issue why the Pakistan High Commission made the payment of $28.706 million (Rs4.59 billion) on behalf of the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) once UK court had made the decree award to broadsheet, GOP assets could be attached/seized immediately to enforce the order
Read 4 tweets
19 Dec 20
Every partisan can have his view who won the debate, but the following facts are indisputable:
- No previous govt has willingly come forward to have a threadbare debate with the opposition in open forum on a burning issue of the day
- Only PTI govt has made inquiry reports public
- All facts and figures are made available for complete scrutiny so that public can arrive at their own judgement
- Only in this govt every contract and every additional loan is minutely examined, and govt ministers willing to respond rather than obfuscate
- Level of public interest/scrutiny economic issues means there’s almost real time assessment taking place of govt decision unlike, for example, in the signing of 20yr IPP or 15yr LNG contracts that happened virtually in the dark
Read 5 tweets
30 Oct 20
The government would do itself a favour by explaining to the people that food commodity prices are driven by international prices. They’ve  moved up by as much 25-50% for the different food commodities in the last few months.
Today international wheat price is ranges between rs2100-2300 per maund whereas the support price paid to local wheat prices is 1350 per maund. Why should local farmers sell at 20-30% lower prices than what he can get by selling across the border in Afghanistan.
Even if he does so, the middle man will buy up the stock and smuggle it across. There’s no point moralising about farmers receiving subsidies and that they should sell at a lower rate than what they get elsewhere. Even if they comply other intermediaries won’t.
Read 10 tweets
18 Sep 20
For a bunch of inexperienced incompetents, the present govt has only managed to:

- Stabilise economy

- Avert BoP crises/default due to PMLN policies

- Renegotiate obscene IPPs contracts by previous govts

- Reverse Karke $1bn penalty

- Stay $6bn penalty award on RikoDiq
...
- Controlled Covid19 crises such Pakistan is an exemplar nation as per WHO. Also kept fatalities lower than most similar populated countries & managed to minimise damage to the economy

- Implemented necessary AML measure and enacted FATF laws necessary to come out of grey list..
- post Covid19 Pak Exports have contracted much less than competing EM countries (eg India)

- Revival in FDI, which is 40% up YoY in first 2 months of current Fiscal Year

- Completely negate Modi’s much trumpeted goal of isolating Pakistan. Playing major role in Afghan peace..
Read 5 tweets
15 Aug 20
The agreement (MoU) between Government & Independent Power Producer is a great achievement & should lead to reduction in power costs and also circular debt. It remains to be seen by how much since there are further negotiations to take place. Highlight of the MoU are:
- Projects will convert their contracts to Take and Pay basis, when Competitive Trading Arrangement is implemented and becomes fully operational, as per the terms defined in the license of each IPP. This will hopefully address the issue of IPPs that not utilised still being paid
- ROE on IPP for foreign investors (as registered with SBP), will be 12% in $, but for local investors 17% in PKR without dollar indexation. Equity value will be fixed in PKR at a $ conversion rate of Rs145. Rupee depreciation will result in reduced hike hikes impact than earlier
Read 9 tweets
29 Jul 20
Now that the Covid-19 curve has been flattened, for the moment at least, there’s the comical search for the X-factor by govt’s detractors. Whether it’s juju or exceptionality of Pakistani genes, the one thing they certainly can’t credit is @ImranKhanPTI strategy of smart lockdown
The experts of all matters in the universe state will table thumping certainty that the following had nothing to do with it:
- 50 different interventions.
- 2300 smart lockdowns covering 47mn people, all data driven.
- TTQ of millions who came into contact with positive cases
And of course we’re suddenly genetically very different to Indians where the daily cases are almost 50,000 & growing at a rate of 20% every week. Also if the cases start going up again then we must not look for any X-factor but immediately put the responsibility on the government
Read 4 tweets

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