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Sunder Katwala Profile picture
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23 Mar, 9 tweets, 4 min read
The Sun's coverage of tomorrow's immigration announcement is the clearest guide to how the government wants to frame its argument
This thread from @ColinYeo1 is an accessible overview of key facts and trends in asylum
Most people want an asylum system to be effective, fair and humane. A key flaw is that earlier progress on making decisions within 6 months has gone into reverse. Not rising cases, or harder cases. It's a failure to invest in a system that works properly
Most asylum claims are granted. A priority should be a system that gives people a fair hearing, to get decisions right case by case. We want people granted refugee protection to be able to get on with rebuilding their lives & becoming part of our society
The public salience of immigration is the lowest that it has been since 1999. It is the public's number 11 issue. Asylum had a higher salience in 2001 and 2005. Immigration for work more recently. The government is here choosing/seeking to make it more salient again.
Low salience doesnt mean people don't care at all, but govt isnt under pressure. Many ('balancers') would care about control (effective system/get decisions right) *and* compassion (see the person behind case) & contribution (help refugees rebuild lives, to contribute here).
It is interesting that the Home Secretary is saying this will take years.
- Partly expectation management
- Partly that has been thought quite likely to be moved in reshuffle (next party chair?) coming in May/June/July

Thread from conference speech. My analysis text suggested the government primarily wants a political argument about the motives of its critics and opponents, rather more than it wants a substantive debate about asylum reform: how to make system work fairly
Politically, the government has an appetite to fight with lawyers and with courts. This presents some dilemmas for critics of the government who are lawyers or experts from civic society. Earlier thread on the challenges

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More from @sundersays

Sunder Katwala Profile picture
24 Mar
The Home Office have published the government's New Plan for Immigration, which proposes reforms to the asylum system. There is now a 6 week public consultation period.
gov.uk/government/con…
It is not factually true that the increase in the backlog of cases (with more people waiting 6 months for a decision) arises from a rise in applications. It comes from reduced capacity/investment in the system: more delays with fewer claims Image
The government is showing a 2-3 year time series. This is the long-term trend Image
Read 9 tweets
Sunder Katwala Profile picture
24 Mar
Scotish Culture Secretary & National Theatre Wales are among the voices talking about how Festival 2022 clearly isn't going to be a Festival of Brexit, in a Guardian report torn between its headline and the actual content theguardian.com/culture/2021/m…
Here are the 10 teams who will be developing the 10 projects at the heart of Festival 2022
festival2022.uk/the-10-teams
I am glad to see David Olusoga in the StoryFutures Collective asking 'who are we' as part of Festival 2022. Image
Read 7 tweets
Sunder Katwala Profile picture
23 Mar
Who is Peter Gammons, the UKIP candidate for Mayor of London (whose quite incredible personal achievements include speaking to the largest crowd in history)? Some more twists in the tale ...
It seem would that Dr Peter Gammons is also the famous English Lord, Lord Wennington, having in 1998 'inherited' this "ancient hereditary title dating back to the 1066 Doomsday book". (That may be a lesser known companion volume to the Domesday Book, or otherwise a typo)
All credit to Barney Cansdale for opening up this splendid further chapter in the amazing adventures of Dr Gammons
Read 16 tweets
Sunder Katwala Profile picture
23 Mar
The "war on woke" being prosecuted is a clear and present threat to the case for the United Kingdom in Scotland. This does not mean it will cease, but it means the current government *ought* to have a foundational interest in defusing rather than stoking it.
Revealed preferences: those who continue to prosecute the war on woke (which has some political advantages for the right in England, by amplifying generational & cultural & political splits) must either be broadly indifferent to the future of UK, or misinformed about Scotland.
A dilemma for elite right (in politics & media) as those most invested in "war on woke" tend to think of themselves as strongly Unionist

Easiest way to square circle is to pay no attention to Scotland so just to talk within an English right bubble about how to win in Scotland
Read 6 tweets
Sunder Katwala Profile picture
23 Mar
The March 23rd 2020 decision to impose a national lockdown is quite probably the most widely supported government policy decision in modern history. It was 93% to 3% at the time, according to YouGov.
There is now one competitor in the vaccination programme. 94% of people want to be part of it & 3% do not. (3% haven't decided personally). I have not seen "do you approve of a government vaccination policy & programme?" asked in the directly comparable form. But surely v similar
It may follow that some people who endorse conspiracy theories do so lightly or frivolously. Odd that not believing we know Covid exists (1/10) or endorsing crackerjack vaccine theories (1/10) polls broader than opposing lockdown (3%) or vaccines (3%) has
Read 4 tweets
Sunder Katwala Profile picture
22 Mar
Brilliant
I first heard of Sidney Powell when Mr Maajid Nawaz said "General Flynn's well-regarded lawyer" on LBC on 14th Nov showed that Dominion computer fraud claims were not a conspiracy theory!

She was little known then. Eg, he got her name wrong at first
This was the claim that she was making at the time. (Her defence that nobody would possibly have believed her story was true does indeed reflect how many/most rational observers would treat her lurid nonsense, though she was herself pursuing it in the courts) Image
Read 5 tweets

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