Update included electronic searches to end of Sept, and other resource up to mid Nov 2020. Next update is already underway. Many thanks to the great crowd of people involved in putting this together.
2/12
Included both lateral flow antigen tests – data on 16 tests (of 92 with regulatory approval) in 48 studies (n=20,168)
And rapid molecular tests – data on 5 tests (of 43 with regulatory approval) in 30 studies (n=3,919)
3/12
Lateral flow antigen tests showed substantial variation in sensitivity.
Higher sensitivity in:
symptomatic (72%) than asymptomatic (58%);
first week of symptoms (78%) vs later (51%).
differences between brands
Specificity consistent – average of 99.6 (99.0, 99.8)
4/12
For testing people with SYMPTOMS
for tests with 5 of more studies
Sensitivity of SD Biosensor was 80% which meets the WHO acceptable use criteria.
Abbott Panbio was lower (74%),
Innova (56%)
Coris Bioconcept (34%)
Other tests have data in review.
5/12
Less data on testing people who were ASYMPTOMATIC
Only Abbott Panbio and SD Biosensor evaluated in >200 individuals.
Abbott Panbio – sensitivity in symptomatic was 72% vs 58% in asymptomatic
SD Biosensor – sensitivity in symptomatic was 79% vs 61% in asymptomatic.
6/12
Data on Innova in asymptomatics was published after search and will be included in review update
Liverpool showed sensitivity of 40% from 70 cases
University of Birmingham showed sensitivity of 3% from 8 cases
Not convincing or a lot of data for testing millions of people
7/12
No evaluations were found for:
Testing symptom free children
The accuracy of test strategies
Where infectiousness is the target condition rather than infection (there is no reference standard that can
be used for this).
8/12
Most studies of Molecular tests were undertaken in laboratories not at point of care
Results showed Xpert Xpress had higher sensitivity (99%) than ID NOW (79%). Only 1 study of DNA Nudge and 2 of Samba II, both promising
9/12
Implication 1
Some lateral flow tests have strong evidence that they can be used as the first test in people within the first 5 days of symptoms.
Their use could radically improve test and trace with early start to contact tracing
-ve results should be verified with PCR
10/12
Implication 2
Few studies have evaluated lateral flow tests for screening people without symptoms.
They miss many cases - not suitable for test-to-enable or test-to-release
No studies for screening children, repeated test strategies or detecting infectiousness.
11/12
Implication 3
Rapid molecular tests are promising but evaluation in settings where they are intended to be used is required.
12/12
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ONS just announced weekly infection rate in secondary school aged children is 0.43%.
Yesterday Test-and-Trace data showed 0.047% of LFTs were positive.
How can we get an estimate of the sensitivity of LFTs from this? I’ve come up with sensitivity=10%
Here are my workings
Three issues
#1 0.047% will include LFT false positives – 0.03% according to DHSC, so 0.017% will be LFT true positives.
#2 0.43% will include PCR false positives – lets go for 1 in 1000 (probably less) to be conservative. So 0.33% will be true cases
#3 ONS data are based on number of children, LFT on number of tests. If assume two tests per week (but only ever one positive per child) then double the rate to 0.034%
So sensitivity seems to be about 0.034/0.33 = 10%
Anybody else want to present a version of these figures?
Sorry - but there is a dreadful mistake made in computing the sensitivity and specificty of LFT in this report. If you look at Figure 32 (day 1 for example) the estimates of sens and spec are based on a subsample of the study with 364 LFT+ve and 686 LFT -ve. 34.7% are LFT+VE
Results just published to 10th March (;ast Wednesday) 2.8 million tests in secondary school kids, 1324 positives- 0.048% or 1 in 2086. Lowest rate ever observed
Government figures would have predicted around 10,000.
Will post more analysis shortly
Sens=50.1% Spec 99.7% Prevalence of 0.5%
of 2,762,775 tests we would expect 6921 true positives and 825 false positives - nearly 6 times more test positives than have been reported.
To get down to the 1324 positives actually observed, either the prevalence has to be 0.036% (1 fourteenth of the expected rate) - 36 per 100,000
Great that @ab4scambs shows some MPs understand the laws of probability (beginning to doubt that there was one) but this justification why we don't need to PCR kids who have positive LFT sadly starts with a fatal flaw
This is the second time I have tweeted this as one decimal place went for a wander in my first set of tweets. Nothing else changes. Thanks to @d_spiegel for spotting it.
2/8
It presumes that the prevalence to use for Covid infection in these calculations is that in the general population - 0.5% or 1 in 200. And then shows that 30% of those who are LFT+ and then PCR - will still have Covid infection. Can you spot the error?
3/8