With all the noise on my timeline yesterday, I didn't have the chance to address the polarizing views of Xhaka that came in response to this viz. I wanted to do that today because it really sheds light on what I believe is a big issue in sports analytics: confirmation bias (1/6)
The two widespread responses to this were either "see? Xhaka is one of the best PL midfielders" or "this proves stats don't belong in football". And the truth is... neither. This isn't meant to be a holistic view of Xhaka, and stats aren't only good when they agree with you (2/6)
This viz is meant to show that, broadly, Xhaka passes very progressively and accurately for Arsenal, and doesn't really dribble. Why that is the case is another debate- one point I mentioned was that this tends to be common among Arsenal midfielders (3/6):
The numbers also show that Xhaka is Arsenal's *most* progressive midfielder, so even among a highly-involved group of midfielders in ball progression, Xhaka is the most involved. Which points to both influence and quality in possession for Arsenal this season (4/6)
However, this isn't a claim that he's one of the best midfielders in any way. There's many other valuable roles a midfielder can perform- broadly, attacking and defending- that can make them effective at a given role. I wasn't making any claims about Xhaka wrt either (5/6)
It's okay to admit that a player you don't like is good and useful in certain areas, or that a player you like is bad at others. Extremes tend to be wrong, and data doesn't always confirm your beliefs. So be sensible, skeptical, and as unbiased as possible when using it (6/6)
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Ever since this goal happened, I've been feeling really uncomfortable about the options Maguire and Fred both had on the ball here. Fred's pass is obviously inexcusable, but I couldn't fathom how something like this could even be allowed to happen, so I took a closer look (1/6)
Firstly- Maguire has the ball and the back 4 is completely flat. Matic makes a run in behind Iheanacho, making himself unavailable for the ball.
Pretty much any other passing option but Fred means the ball will end up back at his feet. (2/6)
Next, Fred receives. He has four options- a weak-footed pass to AWB, a one-touch swing to Telles (who is adjusting his socks instead of showing for the ball), a straight-up clearance out of play, or the pass back to Henderson. A bad pass, but not the worst decision (3/6)
THREAD: Manchester United 1-0 West Brom- United by the numbers
Firstly, Solskjaer deployed United in the usual 4-2-3-1. The shape was better than most previous games and a far cry from the Brighton/Spurs games. Still struggling to get as high up on the right as the left, but Martial’s positioning is more balanced than usual:
It was also more dominant overall. United comfortably outshot West Brom 17-7, with 7-2 shots on target. Single game xG has its limitations, but even without the penalty, Understat had United at 1.77 xG, almost 4 times more than WBA’s 0.44.
THREAD: Data Visualization- Why Solskjaer likes Shaw, United could use 2-3 defensive additions, and McTominay won't be United's long-term defensive midfielder
Recently, United have struggled to transition the ball from defence to midfield, and while last night against Copenhagen was an improvement, the problems were still present.
I think a lot of the team’s success is dependent on getting the ball to Paul Pogba and Bruno Fernandes in advanced areas, as I wrote for @StrettyNews last night: strettynews.com/2020/08/11/uni…