While recent weeks remain subject to revision, it now appears that mortality in the USA peaked during the first week of January and returned to below-normal levels by the end of February:
The drop in mortality over the past 10 weeks corresponds with the waning of the Covid winter season (and the apparent absence of other normal causes of excess Winter mortality):
The narrative that Covid deaths peaked in early January due to "the holidays" does not fit the data: deaths peaked in the central USA before Christmas (infections peaked before Thanksgiving).
In this region, deaths are almost certainly currently below normal.
It is also not possible to credit vaccines for the drop in mortality as the peak of deaths occurred long before a significant portion of the population had received immunity from vaccines (and the impact on deaths would be lag immunity by 2-3 weeks, at minimum).
Summary: 1. Deaths have fallen to normal levels nationwide 2. Deaths peaked too early to blame holidays for rise 3. Deaths fell too early to credit vaccines for fall
Covid was an epidemic respiratory virus which follows normal regional-seasonal transmission patterns.
Caveat: there is always the possibility that we will see another wave of deaths in the future.
However, the high-level of acquired natural immunity and the return of non-Covid coronavirus infections, I believe that Covid-19 is most likely endemic in the US.
If this is true, if Covid became endemic prior to the impact of vaccines, it implies that all of our interventions were pure vanity - and the world paid a grave price for our vanity, with no benefits accrued, whatsoever.
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Remember "flatten the spread"? While the models underlying these graphics were comically inept, I now believe the basic concept will turn out to be correct: the total number of infections can not be reduced, only delayed.
One choice, employed in places like South Dakota, was to do essentially nothing, allowing the virus to spread unmitigated. They have now emerged on the other side with effective seasonally-enhanced herd immunity.
Places like Italy chose the "flatten the spread" route, instituting intermittent lockdowns and ongoing safety theater to keep hospitalizations and deaths at a "manageable" level.
Cases and deaths are on the rise again in Italy, as are lockdowns and protests.
CDC monthly cause of death data is available through the end of August.
Murder increased +24% during the first 8 months of 2020 which implies that, annualized, there were ~4500 additional murders last year in the USA, compared to trend.
Drug overdoses increased +32% during the first year months of 2020; annualized, this implies ~20K excess deaths from OD.
Accidents, excluding motor vehicles, increased +19% in 2020; annualized, this implies ~21K excess deaths.
The singular characteristic of Covid-19 remains heterogeneity of impact.
Regional Heterogeneity: For 3/4 of the global population, Covid has never been a virus of concern; for Europe and the Americas Covid was a major driver of mortality.
Age Heterogeneity: Covid nearly exclusively impacts the elderly, with risk dramatically rising with age. Those under age 50, globally, are at no elevated risk of death from Covid compared to a normal respiratory virus season.
Seasonal Heterogeneity: During the Summer, Covid essentially disappeared from Europe and the temperate regions of the United States. Around the world, Covid has closely followed standard Hope-Simpson seasonal waves.
As most are aware, there has been no flu season this year, with many people mistakenly attributing this to Covid control measures (which work for flu but not covid, apparently).
The Japan Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare has released final birth and death estimates for 2020, which show that Covid-19 did not cause any excess mortality in Japan:
Focusing on just this century's data, it is evident that there were between 8K and 30K fewer deaths than expected in 2020, depending upon the trend period chosen (there were an approximately equal number of missing births):
Japan never had a national lockdown; public mask compliance is lower than in Europe or the blue states in the USA, gyms and restaurants remained open, people continued to commute on crowded trains, and most children continue to go to school.