Thread by @Humble_Analysis

While recent weeks remain subject to revision, it now appears that mortality in the USA peaked during the first week of January and returned to below-normal levels by the end of February:

The drop in mortality over the past 10 weeks corresponds with the waning of the Covid winter season (and the apparent absence of other normal causes of excess Winter mortality):

The narrative that Covid deaths peaked in early January due to "the holidays" does not fit the data: deaths peaked in the central USA before Christmas (infections peaked before Thanksgiving).

In this region, deaths are almost certainly currently below normal.

It is also not possible to credit vaccines for the drop in mortality as the peak of deaths occurred long before a significant portion of the population had received immunity from vaccines (and the impact on deaths would be lag immunity by 2-3 weeks, at minimum).

Summary:
1. Deaths have fallen to normal levels nationwide
2. Deaths peaked too early to blame holidays for rise
3. Deaths fell too early to credit vaccines for fall

Covid was an epidemic respiratory virus which follows normal regional-seasonal transmission patterns.

Caveat: there is always the possibility that we will see another wave of deaths in the future.

However, the high-level of acquired natural immunity and the return of non-Covid coronavirus infections, I believe that Covid-19 is most likely endemic in the US.

If this is true, if Covid became endemic prior to the impact of vaccines, it implies that all of our interventions were pure vanity - and the world paid a grave price for our vanity, with no benefits accrued, whatsoever.