Thread by @ikkmurugan

C voter survey for TN was illogical and my reasons for saying so👇

👉 Sample size is 8709. I.e., 37 Participants on an average per constituency. Too less to call it in anyone’s favour.

👉 Survey in TN was spearheaded by Shabbir. I have problems with the sanctity of the samples

👉56% are satisfied with the current CM and 8.4% aren’t sure.

👉 50% say not at all satisfied defies the current ground reality unless the survey was conducted in a DMK party gathering.

👉No pointed questions about DMK’s past or about MK Stalin’s ability.

👉In Tamil Nadu there are 49% who are satisfied with Rahul Gandhi’s work. This is yet another example to show that this sample survey is not just far from reality but far from earth.

👉Sasikala is brought in as a choice for suitable CM candidate instead of Seeman, Kamal & TTV who are actually contestants for the post.

👉DMK’s 2016 vote share is taken as a basis for all these polls & is expected to raise from there. This is the same with PT poll.

👉42% who say DMK’s dynasty politics can continue have to be found. Really wish to meet those wonderful souls.

👉33% feel AMMK will play spoil sport to ADMK, shouldn’t be considered a basis for transfer of votes. Even I think they’ll play spoilsport but will I vote for AMMK, NO

👉11.4% votes for other parties is another issue. Independents will not take more than 2.5% votes.

Another 1% by other letter pad parties. Seeman is given a 7.5% vote share, this is humongous.

👉Worst of all, everyone eats from ADMK’s Cake. DMK’s cake of 206 remains untouched is a Joke.

👉Excepting 1996, ADMK had never got less than 31% votes. AMMK alliance is given 3.6%, assuming AMMK gets 2%, means ADMK has to get 29% vote share.

So the alliance partners together will contribute to 5.6% itseems. This is PMK’s vote share. Which in this election will scale upto 7%.

What about the rest like BJP, TMC, DKV’s John Pandian?

👉With 46% vote share DMK gets 177 seats but with this vote share they should ideally do a clean sweep.

👉So giving 177 means there are constituencies where C voter feels DMK has no chance of winning. But they feel other constituencies in the same region will go to DMK. Cute!

👉DMK is not gonna get DKV votes this time. It is either going to ADMK or to Puthiya Tamizhagam.

👉DMK is not gonna get Christian votes in full. Atleast Half of it will be taken away by Saghayam, Kamal & Seeman.

👉DMK is not gonna get Muslim votes in full. SDPI in MNM and AIMIM in AMMK alliance will take away atleast 15 to 25% votes.

👉DMK thinks Thirumavalavan will compensate the DKV votes lost. They will realise that he is a liability sooner or later.

👉DMK’s dependence of 12% minority vote is known. Do they have that 12% in fact? NO. That’s why I call the 46% for DMK+ an impossible one.