Share this page!

Ariel Edwards-Levy Profile picture
Twitter logo
25 Mar, 6 tweets, 1 min read
just want everybody to appreciate the sheer quantity of "boating access" jokes I am not making
using results from a river sample, I will examine the size of relevant boating blocks
tfw your boater model ends up being too broad
have they tried shaving off the edges of the thing with some sort of commercial boater file
have they tried weighting to past boat
clearly boater turnout isn't the answer

have they tried boater persuasion

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Ariel Edwards-Levy

Ariel Edwards-Levy Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @aedwardslevy

Ariel Edwards-Levy Profile picture
25 Mar
This is excellent work, and I'm so glad someone tested this out.

"Telling people that Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump have been vaccinated...has an impact on some but not others...our findings suggest that presidents can nudge some of them further along that path."
"Republicans who outright say 'no' do not budge when told of [Trump's] endorsement of vaccines; however, among Republicans more on the fence, we see movement."
Also, recontact data: "Among those who previously said they were planning to get vaccinated, 16% now report having received at least one dose in our survey's control condition. Moreover, one in five of those who previously said maybe to getting a vaccine now say yes outright."
Read 5 tweets
Ariel Edwards-Levy Profile picture
24 Mar
FYI, I actually polled this a while back:
Here are splits by education and 2020 vote:
Read 4 tweets
Ariel Edwards-Levy Profile picture
24 Mar
Adventures in question order:
"[W]hen refusals of gay and lesbian people are equated with refusing service to other minority groups, respondents might be more likely to view religiously based service refusals of gay and lesbian people as discriminatory in nature."
This is, additionally, yet another entry in "why you should always, always, always, always ask to see the toplines first."
Important takeaway here! It's way too easy to frame varying results on issue polling as "these opinions aren't real" when the better answer is "the way people think about this issue is complex, and that's reflected in the data." In the end, it tells us more, not less.
Read 4 tweets
Ariel Edwards-Levy Profile picture
24 Mar
why wasn't I informed about the existence of this clip
(my actual, immediate thought: "damn, batman could bankroll so much live-caller polling if he wanted")
also everybody at the calling house has to do the batman voice
Read 5 tweets
Ariel Edwards-Levy Profile picture
21 Mar
Partisan split is an easy takeaway here, but the way that *everyone* is overestimating (half of GOP/60% of inds are in top two categories!) I think lends itself to a bigger point about the difficulty of estimating probabilities, and translating small %s into so many lives.
Also, people (myself often included) are phenomenally bad at estimating percentages in general. I actually wonder whether people would have done better generally if instead of the numbers they got a more subjective/intuitive scale (e.g. "most," "about half," etc.)
Quite possibly not! But would be an interesting experimental design...
Read 5 tweets
Ariel Edwards-Levy Profile picture
18 Mar
This is one thing that'll be really interesting to keep an eye on. I've thought for a while that if there's a social-trust driven non-response issue with election polls, that same bloc of non-responders would be likely to inflate vaccine numbers by a few points.
Will obviously be useful to have more comparison points - FWIW, when I looked at this a few weeks back when I was doing coronavirus polls for HuffPost/YouGov, our national numbers were tracking pretty well with national vaccination rates, although not sure how it's evolved since.
Read 5 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @aedwardslevy has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @aedwardslevy!

Read all threads by @aedwardslevy