Thread by @MonicaGandhi9

Excellent biostatistician @dvgbiostat can help us understand how LOW your risk of getting #covid19 is after vaccination:
-Without vaccination, would expect among 1000 people to see 26 infections
-With full vax among 1000 people, would see 0.5 (or a 50/50 chance of seeing 0 or 1)

Using data from the two healthcare worker studies in NEJM 3/23 DURING surge much exposure (HCW). Also few cases could be asymptomatic and noninfectious. As community prevalence goes down with mass vax, risk vanishingly low.
nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…

Since papers didn't tell us whether the very low number who got COVID (4/8121) after vax had low viral loads in their nose (or asymptomatic as had asymptomatic screening in one study), likely vaccination controlled symptoms, spread too.

Also, unprecedented in history to test so many asymptomatic people. AFTER vaccination, given massive reduction (near 100%) in getting severe disease & massive reduction in asymptomatic infection, public health system should not be mass testing asymptomatic people.

e.g mass testing of asymptomatic teachers, asymptomatic health care workers after vax - if done- should not be done on taxpayer $ given this incredible effectiveness of vaccines in NEJM studies. Also reporter asked me when we will know if vax reduce transmission- lots of data

luckily, studies NEJM did not have mild/moderate disease. Again 4/8161 = 0.05% = 0.0005 chance = super rare. Please look at effectiveness (that is word we use for outcomes in "real world" studies) instead of efficacy (outcomes clinical trials). Effectiveness>efficacy. u r safe.