EXCL: I understand that the Variant and Mutant Taskforce (a joint body of PHE, JBC and Test&Trace) has written to Matt Hancock to inform him they've traced Covid variants being imported to the UK from countries not on the red list incl. France, Germany, USA and others in Europe.
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1375203279727177737
The variant they're especially concerned about is the South African variant (B.1.351) and I'm told that PHE has instructed its regional teams to prioritise contact tracing of that variant over the others "until further notice".
This is of especial concern because internal estimates suggest that the SA variant might reduce vaccine efficacy to sub 50% (though data is shaky).
Officials are also worried because they calculate 24% of the SA cases they've traced don't have a foreign travel connection.
Officials are also worried because they calculate 24% of the SA cases they've traced don't have a foreign travel connection.
That might imply greater prevalence in the population.
Of course, we're still talking about very low numbers overall- officials are stressing there's no need to be alarmed, at present.
But I do know that advice being presented to the PM by Whitehall...
Of course, we're still talking about very low numbers overall- officials are stressing there's no need to be alarmed, at present.
But I do know that advice being presented to the PM by Whitehall...
....does make the logical point that the growth of variants in the UK (like the disease generally) is being inhibited by lockdown. When that goes, or is gradually reduced, so is that check on variants' potential expansion.
Add in some selection pressure and you can see why officials in their advice to the PM on the roadmap are suggesting that whilst the country is passing tests 1-3 of the roadmap (vaccination levels, infection, hospitalisation)- it's number 4, variants, which has most potential...
...to derail the plan in future.
Lots to calibrate here for politicians-they're worried about tougher border measures to deal with what is still at the moment a small problem about which we don't know much yet. There are legitimate concerns about trade, family reunion...
Lots to calibrate here for politicians-they're worried about tougher border measures to deal with what is still at the moment a small problem about which we don't know much yet. There are legitimate concerns about trade, family reunion...
... economy, travel and politics between states too. But PHE will continue to monitor these "imports"- and if they worsen, talk of placing close allies on the red list can only intensify.
While we're all talking about pubs, variants are what's exercising them most in Whitehall.
While we're all talking about pubs, variants are what's exercising them most in Whitehall.
PHE statement: "Recent studies show the vaccines we are now deploying are effective against the dominant variants in the UK. The B.1.351 variant is not the dominant one in the UK.
“Both the Pfizer and Oxford vaccines are giving strong protection against severe disease..."
“Both the Pfizer and Oxford vaccines are giving strong protection against severe disease..."
"...and death against the dominant variant in the UK, research is ongoing to see how other variants are impacted.
The UK has one of the best genomic sequencing programmes in the world, enabling us to quickly identify any new variants."
The UK has one of the best genomic sequencing programmes in the world, enabling us to quickly identify any new variants."
"We are monitoring all variants very closely and will take the necessary actions when we see variants of concern circulating in the UK.”
DHSC statement: “We have some of the toughest border measures in the world to protect our country and the vaccine rollout from the arrival..."
DHSC statement: “We have some of the toughest border measures in the world to protect our country and the vaccine rollout from the arrival..."
of new and potentially harmful COVID variants. By law, everyone arriving in the UK must quarantine and undertake mandatory testing. As with all our Coronavirus measures, we keep the red list under constant review and our priority remains to protect the health of the UK public.”
More on this at the top of tonight’s Newsnight. Make sure you’re watching- 2245, BBC2.
You can watch full report on this from me and @hattmarris84 on the link below.
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