NEW: Alex Salmond is re-entering frontline politics. He’s has announced that he’s starting a new pro-independence party, “Alba”- says the party will contest the May Holyrood elections.
A remarkable next stage in Salmond’s long goodbye from the SNP and his former colleagues.
A remarkable next stage in Salmond’s long goodbye from the SNP and his former colleagues.
Note the tag line on his backdrop “For the Independence Supermajority”
His sell isn’t that this will damage the SNP but instead will augment support for independence in the Scottish Parliament, rather than damaging the SNP.
His sell isn’t that this will damage the SNP but instead will augment support for independence in the Scottish Parliament, rather than damaging the SNP.
Three things to say about that
1) this could be true in the sense that Scottish Parliament used AMS and you have two votes. But it’s always going to risky to game game and if Alba were to secure a decent proportion of the SNP vote on the list, it could still damage them.
1) this could be true in the sense that Scottish Parliament used AMS and you have two votes. But it’s always going to risky to game game and if Alba were to secure a decent proportion of the SNP vote on the list, it could still damage them.
2) but even assuming that’s not the case- are there that many voters Salmond can attract that the SNP can’t? If there are, it surely can’t be an enormous pool.
3) given those things, most likely outcome is the party and Salmond’s presence on the election campaign reminds voters of the saga which has dominated Scottish politics and the SNP civil war. Which, all in all is likely to be deleterious to the SNP and ergo the Indy cause.
Remember the SNP ideally wants an outright majority. That’s the thing which would provide the most legitimacy for a 2nd referendum and the hardest thing for Johnson to ignore (the 2011 precedent). That is HARD to achieve in AMS. Salmond (repeatedly of late) has made it harder.
In other news, Alba is going to have to find a way to make press questions audible.
It is of course possible that if enough SNP voters were willing to cast their vote for Alba on the regional list, you might theoretically get more pro-independence SNPs. But given SNP-Salmond relations, well...
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1375453845866885122
So as I say, there’s a theoretical outcome here where there could be slightly more pro-Indy MSPs or at least the same number. But that nowhere near compensates for Sturgeon the prospect of Salmond being back in Holyrood or the potential damage from this 👇
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1375454826448949249
Electoral system explained in more detail here
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1375465962087063560
I asked Salmond earlier how it can be that only days ago he was accusing his old colleagues of corrupting the organs of the 🏴 state in a conspiracy against him, threatening to sue and yet now is saying he wants to come to their aid. No credible answer has been presented all day.
.@faisalislam has had a go at trying to get one though. Make sure you're watching Newsnight in 15 mins. BBC2.
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1375566389734424585?s=20
Piece in full from tonight’s programme- on what Salmond’s return means for the Holyrood elections and more importantly, on what comes next. Produced by Newsnight impresario @StuartDenman.
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1375598275508719619
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