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Brendan Nyhan Profile picture
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25 Mar, 6 tweets, 2 min read
Plausible that effects will be limited, but the fact that this legislation may generate offsetting turnout or efforts to mobilize voters does not make it in any way ok
100%
beyond hot takes
Evidence somewhat mixed on counter-mobilization effects
important points on potential longer-term effects and counter-mobilization happening potentially among other folks than those directly affected

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Brendan Nyhan Profile picture
15 Mar
Two things can be true:
-The voting restrictions under consideration are very bad and anti-democratic. They should be defeated.
-The scope of effects they will create is unknown. The voter ID literature, for instance, finds small negative effects, not permanent minority rule.
The first point DOES NOT DEPEND on the second. Anti-democratic laws are bad full stop even if the harms they inflict are not unbounded.

Structural disadvantages for urban voters, Democrats, etc. can be anti-democratic too. The question is not binary.
True
Read 5 tweets
Brendan Nyhan Profile picture
12 Mar
This. Need a path to make this a win for Rs so they will help tout the vaccines and encourage people to get vaccines
More of this!
More of this!
Read 5 tweets
Brendan Nyhan Profile picture
19 Feb
ICYMI
One especially noteworthy set of findings from our new @BrightLineWatch survey are from the survey of local policymakers conducted by our partners @AskCivicPulse, which was paired with identical questions in our public survey. brightlinewatch.org/american-democ…
Our @BrightLineWatch/@AskCivicPulse survey found that GOP election distrust extends far deeper than just the public. Though Republican policymakers trust results more than Rs overall, they are still distrustful of results, especially at the national level.
brightlinewatch.org/american-democ…
Read 4 tweets
Brendan Nyhan Profile picture
18 Feb
Post-Trump news vacuum + Cruz being so personally unlikable could make this an incredible pile-on
p(Cruz says he went to Cancun to own the libs) and p(Cruz allies saying he's being cancelled) are disturbingly high. what a time to be alive.
Read 5 tweets
Brendan Nyhan Profile picture
18 Feb
New @BrightLineWatch report out today on American democracy at the start of the Biden presidency brightlinewatch.org/american-democ… Thread on our findings below...
Read 5 tweets
Brendan Nyhan Profile picture
16 Feb
A huge amount of Twitter discourse is just cycles between accuracy and rhetorical goals:

A: [true statement]
B: That is not helpful

and

A: [message intended to be helpful]
B: That is not true
Read 5 tweets

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