Thread by @BillHanage

Getting immunity from a vaccine is vastly safer than from infection, both as an individual because it avoids the negative consequences of infection AND for the community because unlike the virus, these vaccines don’t transmit

https://twitter.com/gwengraham/status/1375117839925907463

So I am quite pleased that a decent fraction of Fla residents have received at least one shot, the more the merrier

I predicted a few months ago that Fla would be quieter than other places over the winter because of larger number of contacts outside. I don’t know if that *was* the reason but the relative quietness did materialize even as variants have grown to a large proportion of cases

Of course last year things changed as the weather got hotter. Possibly because people started gathering indoors in air conditioned spaces

This year more will be immune for all sorts of reasons. Fact remains Fla will be important to watch as it has appreciable transmission of both B.1.1.7 and P.1 already and its indoor season is still to come. But vaccination levels are increasing.

Which is why we should watch closely. I’m not going to make strong predictions (other than I expect cases to ↗️ and the impact on hospitalization remains to be seen) because I am not sure enough. If that changes will update