Thread by @Kit_Yates_Maths

A short thread on cases ahead of today's @IndependentSage briefing.
SUMMARY:
Cases are flat across the UK and in each nation.

Positivity rates, however, are still falling (but more slowly), suggesting case flattening is, in part, a result of increased testing.

UK cases (LFD and PCR by reported date) have fallen dramatically since January, but are not falling any more. Cases have remained flat, at around 5/6K for a couple of weeks now.

Zooming in we can see just how flat cases are, suggesting R is very close to one.
There may be indications of a slight rise in the last week or so, but data is noisy and it's hard to say (from this) how much of the rise may be due to increases in testing.

Breaking cases down by nation (per 100K per week by specimen data) suggests a similar picture. Perhaps showing slight falls in Northern Ireland, but flat in the other nations.

Just looking at PCR confirmed positives, the positivity rate seems to be shallowly declining in all nations (less in Scotland) which suggests that the flattening off of case numbers (in the UK data) may be due to the significantly increased testing we've seen in schools.

Looking at cases (per 100K per week) in each of the English regions, we see the same flattening off in the last few weeks as we have seen nationally with the possible exception of Yorkshire and the Humber which may be rising.

Again though, looking at the PCR positivity in these regions suggests, that infections are still on the decline in all regions albeit more slowly than before.

The ONS prevalence survey (released at midday) will tell us more about positivity rates and may give us a clearer picture of what exactly is happening. As always we will need to be wary of the potential effects of small sample sizes.
\ENDS