Tweet

Kit Yates

26 Mar, 10 tweets, 3 min read

A thread on vaccination data.
Summary: Rollout is going well still although we anticipate a slow down in April due to supply.
Second doses need to keep pace with first doses.

There are stark disparities in those who plan to take up the vaccine based on deprivation and ethnicity.

Vaccination continues apace. Despite record numbers at the end of last week, this week has seen a bit of a slow-down.
More second doses are being given to keep pace with the rate of increase in first doses 12 weeks ago.
We will see first doses drop off in April due to supply.

Over 53% of the adult population have received their first dose now and around 5% have received their second dose as well.

Coverage is roughly similar in all nations although we are starting to see Northern Ireland (black) fall behind a little bit while England (red) surges ahead.

Proportions of people taking up the vaccine so far have been very high.
Starting to see the over 80s reach higher levels of coverage of the second dose, since they were given their first jab before other age groups.

Just looking at the over 80s - the second dose pattern will need to mimic the first dose pattern if everyone is to receive their second dose on time.
At the moment we are ahead of the curve having done 26% of 2nd doses compared to 18% of first doses 12 weeks before.

ONS survey on vaccine attitudes shows a clear deprivation gradient in vaccine hesitancy (highest in the most deprived areas and lowest in the least).
We will need to tackle this to ensure all demographics are well protected.

Vaccine hesitancy also varies dramatically by ethnicity with white people least likely to be "vaccine hesitant*" at 8% and black people most likely at 44%.
This is another issue that we need to address if we are to offer equal protection from COVID to all sections of society.

*Vaccine hesitancy here includes those who: have been offered the vaccine but declined the offer; are very or fairly unlikely to have the vaccine if offered; are neither likely nor unlikely to have the vaccine if offered; don't know; preferred not to say.

Overall the vaccine programme continues to be a good news story, but we need to be conscious of potential disparities in uptake which will further entrench covid-related and non-covid-related inequalities in the UK.

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More from @Kit_Yates_Maths

Kit Yates

@Kit_Yates_Maths

26 Mar

A quick look at the situation of some of our mainland European neighbours.
Summary: There is a third wave happening in Europe at the moment, but it is not the same in every country.
There is no reason to believe that this wave will "Wash up on our shores".

Cases are rising in many European countries as the impact of the higher transmissibility of the UK variant B117 kicks in.
Not all nations are experiencing this wave though. Spain for example has relatively low levels of cases.

The UK still far outranks any other European country in terms of total death toll, although the UK's trajectory is much flatter and other nations like France and Germany are seeing significant rises.
All countries are in a race to vaccinate their populations...

Read 8 tweets

Kit Yates

@Kit_Yates_Maths

26 Mar

A short good news thread on critical care capacity/occupancy (England).
Summary: Adult critical care bed occupancy is coming down allowing hospitals to start to return to normal functioning.

Adult critical care bed occupancy has fallen in most English regions and is now down below the suggested 80% of capacity threshold in all regions.
(Orange dots are this week's occupancy grey dots are last week's).

Nationally, this year's adult critical care occupancy (blue dashed) has fallen close to last year's levels (orange dashed line) and surge capacity (clue full line) is being decreased correspondingly.

Read 4 tweets

Kit Yates

@Kit_Yates_Maths

26 Mar

A short thread on schools/case data broken down by age.
Summary: Cases falling in over 20s but rising in under 20s.
Some of the rise may be due to increased testing but not all of it.
Data are consistent with, but not conclusive proof school transmission.

Cases (per 100k per week) continue to fall for the over 60s and for the 20-59 age bracket in all regions of England.
This is not the case for the under 20s...

Cases for the under 20s have begun to rise in all English regions coinciding with the return of schools in England on the 8th of March.
Cases are rising most steeply in Yorkshire and the Humber.

Read 10 tweets

Kit Yates

@Kit_Yates_Maths

26 Mar

@IndependentSage

A short thread on cases ahead of today's @IndependentSage briefing.
SUMMARY:
Cases are flat across the UK and in each nation.

Positivity rates, however, are still falling (but more slowly), suggesting case flattening is, in part, a result of increased testing.

UK cases (LFD and PCR by reported date) have fallen dramatically since January, but are not falling any more. Cases have remained flat, at around 5/6K for a couple of weeks now.

Zooming in we can see just how flat cases are, suggesting R is very close to one.
There may be indications of a slight rise in the last week or so, but data is noisy and it's hard to say (from this) how much of the rise may be due to increases in testing.

Read 8 tweets

Kit Yates

@Kit_Yates_Maths

23 Mar

One year on from the first national lockdown I look at the lessons we *should* have learned and the failings that left us with one of the worst death told in the world.

Have we learned any of these lessons?
1/8

theconversation.com/six-lessons-th…

1. Act quickly

“England did not lock down until November 5, by which point average daily cases had already exceeded 20,000. It has been estimated that more than one million extra infections and 20,000 deaths resulted from this six-week delay.”
2/8

2. Act decisively

“As of mid-March, passengers from only 11 of the 64 countries where arguably the most concerning variant – the South Africa variant – has been detected were being asked to undergo ten days of managed isolation.”
3/8

Read 8 tweets

Kit Yates

@Kit_Yates_Maths

5 Mar

A short 🧵 on case data and positivity rates.
Cases per 100K per week for each of the home nations are still falling, but less steeply than before.
With fewer cases we would expect falls to be less steep.

Results include lateral flow tests that have not been confirmed with PCR.

Positivity rates show the same picture.
This time we use only PCR tests because lateral flow testing is often used for mass testing where we expect to pick up a smaller proportion of positives.
Positivity rates are falling in all UK nations with England and Scotland now below 5%

The REACT survey (for England) also shows positivity continuing to fall albeit at a slower rate.
This is a prevalence study, not an incidence study, but the story of falling cases is broadly the same.
3/8

Read 9 tweets

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