Friday Fluday Thread, MMWR Week 11
United States Influenza testing, MMWR week 11.
CDC flu view. cdc.gov/flu/weekly/ind…
Five-year average: 6,663 cases; 20.50% positive
Last year: 7,340; 15.77%
This year: 22; 0.07%
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
CDC flu view. cdc.gov/flu/weekly/ind…
Five-year average: 6,663 cases; 20.50% positive
Last year: 7,340; 15.77%
This year: 22; 0.07%
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
United States Influenza testing, season to date (25 weeks, MMWR 40 to 11)
Five-year average: 175,955 cases; 18.75% positive
Last year: 272,593; 22.65%
This year: 1,854; 0.16%
Five-year average: 175,955 cases; 18.75% positive
Last year: 272,593; 22.65%
This year: 1,854; 0.16%
Season-to-date U. S. flu hospitalizations down 98.9% from last year, which was a typical year.
Flu hospitalizations total (25 weeks) in FluSurv-NET catchment is 210. Through week 11 last year (24 weeks) it was 18,904.
Rate last year: 65.1 per 100K
This year: 0.7 per 100K
Flu hospitalizations total (25 weeks) in FluSurv-NET catchment is 210. Through week 11 last year (24 weeks) it was 18,904.
Rate last year: 65.1 per 100K
This year: 0.7 per 100K
Influenza-Like Illness (ILI) continues to track well lower than the mild 2015-16 and 2011-12 seasons, and is flat after a tick up the previous week.
Still just one U.S. pediatric flu death this season. (There are 119 pediatric deaths with COVID this season.)
CDC did report two additional pediatric flu deaths this week, but both were added to last year, the 2019-2020 season.
CDC did report two additional pediatric flu deaths this week, but both were added to last year, the 2019-2020 season.
Latest U.S. non-SARS-CoV2 syndromic data from BioFire.
Lots of rhinoviruses and some adenoviruses all year.
HCoV-OC43 and especially HCoV-NL63 comebacks continue as SARS-CoV2 recedes.
Flu A, B, RSV, and PIV are all back at low levels.
syndromictrends.com/metric/panel/r…
Lots of rhinoviruses and some adenoviruses all year.
HCoV-OC43 and especially HCoV-NL63 comebacks continue as SARS-CoV2 recedes.
Flu A, B, RSV, and PIV are all back at low levels.
syndromictrends.com/metric/panel/r…
More on the HCoV-NL63 comeback. CDC surveillance data. Spike already over? cdc.gov/surveillance/n…
Big HCoV-NL63 Midwest spike; in previous years HCoV-NL63 rose as other more dominant coronavirus faded.
Florida.
Schools open all year. No lockdowns since September. Rhinoviruses and some adenoviruses but still nearly no flu;
PIV has reappeared.
RSV rise has resumed and is now above baseline.
floridahealth.gov/diseases-and-c…
Schools open all year. No lockdowns since September. Rhinoviruses and some adenoviruses but still nearly no flu;
PIV has reappeared.
RSV rise has resumed and is now above baseline.
floridahealth.gov/diseases-and-c…
Sweden week 11. No masks, no lockdowns, no school closures -- and nearly a full year with no Flu A, Flu B, or RSV. HCoVs have come back and rose again this week.
karolinska.se/globalassets/g…
karolinska.se/globalassets/g…
Brazil. Very lax control measures, and a president who urges people to disregard them. Still no flu.
apps.who.int/flumart/Defaul…
apps.who.int/flumart/Defaul…
It wasn't masks, which were never used in many countries where flu disappeared and have been shown to be ineffective for stopping influenza in many, many studies.
Japan masked hard in 2019 and failed to stop a major flu outbreak. But in 2020 flu disappeared with low stringency COVID intervention.
https://twitter.com/ianmSC/status/1365091758887997440
The idea mitigations worked but unmitigated SARS-CoV2 just has a higher R (popular now among the same crowd that said twindemic! when flu had been gone for months) is way too facile.
Outside of testing ramp up, I don't think we've seen R > 2, even in places without NPIs.
Rhinoviruses bounced right back despite lower R and RSV was gone until recently with comparable R to SARS-CoV2.
HCoVs were gone until SARS-CoV2 declined.
Rhinoviruses bounced right back despite lower R and RSV was gone until recently with comparable R to SARS-CoV2.
HCoVs were gone until SARS-CoV2 declined.
Plus, as Biden adviser Dr. Michael Osterholm points out, our mitigation just hasn't been very effective. Maybe in places like Australia and New Zealand where mitigations stopped SARS-CoV2 they also stopped other viruses. But in countries where SARS-CoV2 went wild? No.
Osterholm: "There is this viral interference"
Viral interference is a well-known (but poorly understood) phenomenon. Interference from rhinovirus is generally thought to have ended the swine flu epidemic in 2009.
thelancet.com/journals/lanmi…
thelancet.com/journals/lanmi…
This great short article from @m_soond explains the viral interference theory of this respiratory season: medium.com/illumination-c…
Overall the season has been so mild that drug store chains took big losses.
Rite Aid CEO Heyward Donigan: "During the fourth quarter our industry was impacted by a historically soft cough, cold and flu season."
forbes.com/sites/brucejap…
Rite Aid CEO Heyward Donigan: "During the fourth quarter our industry was impacted by a historically soft cough, cold and flu season."
forbes.com/sites/brucejap…
We're seeing reports like this from all over the country. The empty pediatric wards usually used for respiratory disease have been converted to deal with the overflow child psychiatric admissions from lockdowns/school closures.
https://twitter.com/DrKristenW/status/1374911931681796098
Pediatric internships and residencies have to be extended because they just didn't have enough patients to gain the normal amount of clinical experience.
https://twitter.com/DrKristenW/status/1374095951170830336
The bottom line is many places locked kids out of school during the *safest* respiratory season globally (and without regard to NPIs) for children ever recorded. It's a disgrace.
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