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12 Mar, 22 tweets, 11 min read
Friday Fluday Thread, MMWR Week 9

Please remember who told you we'd skip flu season and who screamed twindemic!
United States Influenza testing, MMWR week 9.

CDC flu view. cdc.gov/flu/weekly/ind…

Five-year average: 8,271 cases; 23.16% positive

Last year: 11,782; 25.57%

This year: 22; 0.08%

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
United States Influenza testing, season to date (23 weeks, MMWR 40 to 9)

Five-year average: 152,516 cases; 17.88% positive

Last year: 245,227; 22.71%

This year: 1,764; 0.17%
Season-to-date U. S. flu hospitalizations down 98.8% from last year, which was a typical year.

Flu hospitalizations total (23 weeks) in FluSurv-NET catchment is 200. Through week 9 last year (22 weeks) it was 16,819.

Rate last year: 57.9 per 100K
This year: 0.7 per 100K
Influenza-Like Illness (ILI) continues to track well lower than the mild 2015-16 and 2011-12 seasons, and is declining when it was rising in those years.
Still just one U.S. pediatric flu death this season. (There are 99 pediatric deaths with COVID this season.)
Influenza-Like Illness (ILI) Map

Week 9: 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018
Latest U.S. non-SARS-CoV2 syndromic data from BioFire.

Lots of rhinoviruses and some adenoviruses all year.

HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-NL63 comeback continues as SARS-CoV2 recedes.

Flu A and RSV reappear.

syndromictrends.com/metric/panel/r…
Florida. Schools open all year. No lockdowns since September. Rhinoviruses and some adenoviruses but nearly no flu. RSV returned in recent weeks and is rising toward normal levels.
floridahealth.gov/diseases-and-c…
The global flu chart from WHO.
apps.who.int/flumart/Defaul…
Sweden week 9. No masks, no lockdowns, no school closures -- and nearly a full year with no Flu A, Flu B, or RSV. HCoVs have come back.
karolinska.se/globalassets/g…
Brazil. Infamously lax control measures, and a president who urges people to disregard them.
But flu is not gone everywhere.
apps.who.int/flumart/Defaul…
I don't think it's masks, which have been shown to be ineffective for stopping influenza in many, many studies.
Japan masked hard in 2019 and failed to stop a major flu outbreak. But in 2020 flu disappeared with low stringency COVID intervention.
The idea mitigations worked but unmitigated SARS-CoV2 just has a higher R is way too facile.

Rhinoviruses bounced right back despite lower R and RSV was gone until recently with comparable R to SARS-CoV2.

HCoVs were gone until the last few weeks when SARS-CoV2 declined.
Plus, as Biden adviser Dr. Michael Osterholm points out, our mitigation just hasn't been very effective. Maybe in places like Australia and New Zealand where mitigations stopped SARS-CoV2 they also stopped other viruses. But in countries where SARS-CoV2 went wild? No.
Osterholm: "There is this viral interference"
Viral interference is a well-known (but poorly understood) phenomenon. Interference from rhinovirus is generally thought to have ended the swine flu epidemic in 2009.

thelancet.com/journals/lanmi…
And H1N1 dominated other flu viruses that year -- a skipped seasonal flu season. No masks, lockdowns, or distancing needed.
The bottom line is -- regardless of why we had the season we did -- we locked kids out of school during the safest respiratory season for children ever recorded. Shameful.
This short article from @m_soond is still the best theory in my opinion.
medium.com/illumination-c…

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More from @kerpen

Phil Kerpen Profile picture
7 Mar
Weekly update from @BurbioCalendar:

% US K-12 students attending "virtual-only" schools = 23.7% (from 27.5% last week)

% US K-12 students attending "traditional" in-person/every day schools = 46.9% (from 44.7%)

% US K-12 students attending "hybrid" schools = 29.4% (from 27.8%)
California passed Maryland for dead last.

cai.burbio.com/school-opening…
K-5 Students:

18.8% attending virtual-only schools (from 23.7% last week)

24.2% attending schools offering hybrid (from 22.1%)

57.0% attending schools offering traditional (from 54.2%)
Read 6 tweets
Phil Kerpen Profile picture
5 Mar
Friday Fluday Thread, MMWR Week 8

Friendly reminder: Please remember who told you we'd skip flu season and who screamed twindemic!
United States Influenza testing, MMWR week 8.

CDC flu view. cdc.gov/flu/weekly/ind…

Five-year average: 9,724 cases; 25.10% positive

Last year: 12,402; 27.95%

This year: 33; 0.09%

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
United States Influenza testing, season to date (22 weeks, MMWR 40 to 8)

Five-year average: 139,610 cases; 17.31% positive

Last year: 225,169; 22.29%

This year: 1,739; 0.17%
Read 21 tweets
Phil Kerpen Profile picture
28 Feb
Burbio update:
% US K-12 students attending "virtual-only" schools = 27.5% (from 31.1% last week)
% US K-12 students attending "traditional" in-person/every day schools = 44.7%
% US K-12 students attending "hybrid" schools = 27.8%
K-5 Students:

23.7% attending virtual-only schools (from 26.4% last week)
22.1% attending schools offering hybrid (from 21.4%)
54.2% attending schools offering traditional (from 52.2%)
Grades 6-8 Students

29.0% attending virtual-only schools (from 34.6% last week)
32.2% attending schools offering hybrid (from 29.6%)
38.8% attending schools offering traditional (from 35.8%)
Read 7 tweets
Phil Kerpen Profile picture
26 Feb
Influenza update thread, MMWR Week 7
United States Influenza testing, MMWR week 7.

CDC flu view. cdc.gov/flu/weekly/ind…

Five-year average: 10,930 cases; 25.60% positive

Last year: 15,638; 30.58%

This year: 30; 0.10%

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
United States Influenza testing, season to date (21 weeks, MMWR 40 to 7)

Five-year average: 124,156 cases; 16.45% positive

Last year: 205,675; 21.74%

This year: 1,701; 0.17%
Read 18 tweets
Phil Kerpen Profile picture
21 Feb
Cuomo keeps saying he only lied about WHERE people died. But he also still refuses to include probable deaths in the count -- and New York has a lot of them, because testing was scarce early.
This is the difference between the state dashboard that CTP uses and the count compiled from county sites used by Worldmeters. It's a huge difference.

As of today:

New York state dashboard: 37,851
County totals: 47,019
The CDC is closer to the county number because it has all the probables from NYC included. That's because the city reports separately, and De Blasio followed CDC directives to include probables.
Read 4 tweets
Phil Kerpen Profile picture
19 Feb
TWINDEMIC UPDATE THREAD MMWR WEEK 6

(Remember who said we'd skip flu season and who didn't!)
United States Influenza testing, MMWR week 6.

CDC flu view. cdc.gov/flu/weekly/ind…

Five-year average: 12,066 cases; 25.38% positive
Last year: 18,193; 31.96%
This year: 17; 0.04%

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
United States Influenza testing, season to date (20 weeks, MMWR 40 to 6)

Five-year average: 109,042 cases; 15.57% positive
Last year: 183,066; 20.91%
This year: 1,585; 0.17%
Read 14 tweets

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