There are three aspects to the valuation stack of $RUNE - the determined value, the baseline value, and the speculative premium.
Thorchain requires system nodes bond an amount of RUNE greater in value than the value staked in the LPs. This requirement creates recourse for misdeeds or malfeasance.
A $1 of LP capital is evenly split between $0.50 of a non-native token value (BTC, ETH, etc.) and $0.50 in RUNE. So $0.50 of non-native token value determines that $0.50 of LP RUNE and at least $1 of node RUNE will be locked in the network - 3 parts RUNE for each part non-RUNE.
IOW, the determined network value is 3 times the value of the non-RUNE LP tokens. If $1B of non-RUNE is staked in the Thorchain network, the value of the RUNE in the network must exceed $3 billion. A very important idea .. and way too simple.
Not all the RUNE in circulation will be in the network. There is hodl RUNE. There is AMM RUNE. There is CEX RUNE. There is plenty of RUNE that won’t be on the network. This absence is a form of leverage.
The baseline valuation of the $RUNE token is equal to the determined value - e.g. $3B RUNE determined from $1B non-RUNE - divided by the number of RUNE actually in the network.
If 100M of RUNE are in the network then the baseline value of RUNE is $3B of value / 100M = $30 RUNE. (Note there are 200M RUNE in circulation and 500M maximum.)
The greatest economic use of RUNE may be inside Thorchain. But Thorchain itself has a lot of incentive to create out-of-network use-cases for RUNE. Eg., offering IL protection on Sushi swap RUNE pools. Leverage, leverage, leverage.
The final part of valuing the $RUNE is the speculative premium. Thorchain is likely to experience dramatic growth. If RUNE’s baseline value is $10 today, $20 in 3-months, and some very large multiple of $10 in 12 months, where does it trade? Speculators speculate.
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