1/ $RUNE - Thorchain’s token - acts like a crypto index fund with network effects, with at the moment, a huge speculative premium. And the speculative premium is deserved because RUNE acts a crypto index fund with network effects. So for some perspective ..
2/ $BTC is off-shored, hard money with network effects. This money with network effects has done pretty well. BTC is also a very narrow purpose enterprise - it secures both the money and the ledger of the money.
3/ Enterprises come in many varieties and structures. A family is an enterprise. As are schools, grocery stores, mayors’ offices, discord channels, Apple, and so one.
4/ The fastest growing sector of enterprises are digital native ones which embed tokens to generate network effects to accelerate the growth of the enterprise and its target market.
5/ What if there was a way to gain economic exposure to the most significant of these digital native enterprises? What if that access was tokenized and itself had network effects? That is $RUNE
6/ To understand the crypto index fund aspect of RUNE, consider the collection of RUNE LPs that will be available over time. Each LP is one-half non-RUNE (BTC, ETH, BNB, LTC, BCH to start, with new ones added over time), and the other half is RUNE.
7/ If the values of all the non-RUNE tokens goes up 50%, arbitrage pushes up RUNE’s determined value contemporaneously.
The contemporaneous mirroring caused by the LP structure means that RUNE’s price will have qualities of index of the underlying non-RUNE LP assets.
8/ The market goes up, RUNE manages more value. RUNE goes up.
The index fund qualities are not necessarily market-cap weighted, but rather weighted by the relative size of the LPs. It is like an index nonetheless.
But wait. There’s more!
9/ LPs gain AMM fee income as value is transferred into, out of, and across Thorchain’s network of LPs - crypto’s first network that allows cross-chain value transfer.
10/ And in a world with dramatic growth of network-effected enterprises on many varieties of chains, the need for value transfer and associated fee opportunities will be massive.
But wait. There’s more!
11/ As the network grows because it provides superior economics to any passive form of crypto asset allocation, that growth deterministically drives up the value of RUNE. See this thread:
12/ When non-RUNE assets are added to one LP and RUNE’s price is arbitraged higher, that price increase ripples across all the other LPs. They are arbitraged. RUNE is sold, and non-RUNE tokens are bought. More tokens are captured out of the market.
13/ If you start by 1 BTC and the equivalent RUNE into the BTC:RUNE LP, network growth buys you more and more BTC even if all the growth was in the BCH pool. Network growth cause value accretion.
14/ If an index fund is a low-cost, efficient investment vehicle. RUNE is like an index fund, mixed with exchange income and network growth value capture. Wait until they add borrowing and lending fee income.
15/ If BTC is money with network effects, RUNE is the BTC analog to nework-effected, revenue enhanced, crypto-native-enterprise index investing ..
16/ Well, let’s say that Thorchain may become the Blackrock of the crypto-verse and $RUNE is the way to own a piece of the rock, to in-prudentially remix corporate attributes.
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1/ Staking coins into a RUNE LP captures two types of value - cashflow, and RUNE appreciation. Cashflow has two parts - transaction fees and block rewards. Transaction fees are self-explanatory. Block rewards will create an explosive flywheel effect of value accrual.
2/ Currently, there are 200M RUNE in circulation, and a max total of 500M.
3/ Messari gives a great breakdown of RUNE’s token supply curve: messari.io/asset/thorchain. Over the next 5 years, 90M RUNE, worth $550M will be provided as liquidity rewards, issued with the production of each Thorchain block.
There are three aspects to the valuation stack of $RUNE - the determined value, the baseline value, and the speculative premium.
Thorchain requires system nodes bond an amount of RUNE greater in value than the value staked in the LPs. This requirement creates recourse for misdeeds or malfeasance.
A $1 of LP capital is evenly split between $0.50 of a non-native token value (BTC, ETH, etc.) and $0.50 in RUNE. So $0.50 of non-native token value determines that $0.50 of LP RUNE and at least $1 of node RUNE will be locked in the network - 3 parts RUNE for each part non-RUNE.
How does $1B of BTC ape into Thorchain / Chaosnet if there is only $1.2B $RUNE outstanding (200M RUNE tokens @ $6)? Remember, $1B of BTC in the network requires at least $3B of RUNE to be locked into the network.
How can there be $3B inside when there is only $1.2B total outstanding?
Let’s start with an example BTC:RUNE LP with 10 BTC and 90,000 RUNE. Someone apes 1 BTC into the pool, and now the ratio changes to 11 BTC and 90,000 RUNE (ignoring fees). Now what?
Now 90,000 RUNE is worth 11 BTC up from 10. This change only happened in the LP, and not across all markets.
There is an opportunity to buy cheap BTC from the LP book a quick profit. How does some one / bot get the BTC out of the LP?